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2008 Economic Calendar |
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Resource Center » U.S. & Intl Recaps | Release Dates | Why Investors Care | Today's Calendar
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The National Association of Purchasing Management - Chicago compiles a survey and a composite diffusion index of business conditions in the Chicago area. Manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms are both surveyed, but until recently, market players have believed that the survey primarily covers the manufacturing sector. Readings above 50 percent indicate an expanding business sector. The NAPM - Chicago is considered a leading indicator of the ISM manufacturing index. Why Investors Care
| Released on 4/29/05 For Apr 2005 | ||||||||||
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Highlights
The Chicago purchasers' index slipped back in April, to 65.6 vs. 69.2 in March. Despite the decline, levels remain extremely strong. The new orders index held above 70, at 71.0 vs. 76.7. The new orders reading, combined with rising backlogs at 52.4 vs. 55.6, points to strong production in the months ahead.
Production slipped back to 68.9 from 75.8, again still a strong reading. Employment was also very strong, at 62.3 vs. 66.0. Prices for raw materials showed continued pressure at 66.1 vs. 68.2.
The Chicago report in general is grossly misunderstood. Economists typically believe the report is skewed by transportation equipment, which it is not. What it is, however, is light on electronics, which is currently a sector on the downswing and which, along with the inclusion of the very strong service sector, may help explain the report's unusual strength. Many also believe it is an exclusive survey of the manufacturing sector, which it is not, as it draws freely from all sectors of the economy.
The report does show moderation and is likely to trim back estimates for Monday's ISM report, which is a national survey of purchasers exclusively from the manufacturing sector.
Despite declines in the report, bonds dipped in immediate reaction while the dollar firmed.
The NAPM-Chicago's business barometer surged in March to 69.2. This index, which measures both manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity in the Chicago region, was pretty strong for the month. It remains to be seen whether activity remained healthy in April.
NAPM-Chicago Consensus Forecast for Apr 05: 63
Range: 57 to 65
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The NAPM-Chicago Survey registers manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity in the Chicago region. Investors care about this indicator because the Chicago region mirrors the nation in its distribution of manufacturing activity. Consequently, the NAPM-Chicago survey often moves together with the ISM index, but is reported one day in advance. |
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