2008 Economic Calendar
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Personal Income and Outlays
Definition
Personal income is the dollar value of income received from all sources by individuals. Personal outlays include consumer purchases of durable and nondurable goods, and services.  Why Investors Care

Released on 12/1/05 For Oct 2005
Personal Income, M/M change
 Actual 0.4%  
 Consensus 0.5%  
 Consensus Range 0.2%  to  0.6%  
    
Consumer Spending, M/M change
  Actual 0.2%  
 Consensus 0.2%  
 Consensus Range 0.0%  to  0.4%  

Highlights
Personal spending proved a bust in October, in an inauspicious indication for the holidays. Held down by sharply lower vehicle purchases, spending rose only 0.2% following a 0.5% rise in September. Making matters worse was a fifth straight contraction in the savings rate, down 0.7% vs. a negative 0.8% in September.

But personal income did show strength, up 0.4% in October with wages & salaries up a solid 0.6%. Hurricane insurance payments helped offset lost rental income.

Inflation readings were benign, up 0.1% overall and up 0.1% excluding food and energy. A big plus is the year-on-year core rate, at a very modest 1.8%. November declines in gas prices point to easing inflation pressures in the months ahead.

Financial markets showed no significant reaction to the report. But stingy, tapped-out consumers do not point to a healthy holiday season.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Personal income jumped 1.7 percent in September rebounding from August's decline. On average, the two months were on par with the previous several months in the year. Personal consumption expenditures increased 0.5 percent in September despite another drop in durable goods spending. Outside motor vehicles, retail sales were strong in October and should help lift personal consumption expenditures.

Personal income Consensus Forecast for Oct 05: 0.5 percent
Range: 0.2 to 0.6 percent

Personal consumption expenditures Consensus Forecast for Oct 05: 0.2 percent
Range: 0.0 to 0.4 percent
Trends
[Chart] Changes in taxes or social security cost of living adjustments can cause some sharp variations in monthly disposable income growth. However, on the whole, monthly changes in disposable income fluctuate less than monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures.

[Chart] Monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures are usually skewed by large changes in spending on durable goods. Spending on nondurable goods and services tend to be less volatile from one month to the next.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
Personal Income and Outlays: 2005 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/31 2/28 3/31 4/29 5/27 6/30 8/2 9/1 9/30 10/31 12/1 12/22
Released For: Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov


 
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