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Resource Center » U.S. & International Recaps | Release Dates | Why Investors Care | Today's Calendar
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Personal Income and Outlays
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Definition
Personal income is the dollar value of income received from all sources by individuals. Personal outlays include consumer purchases of durable and nondurable goods, and services. Why Investors Care
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| Released on
10/31/05
For
Sep 2005 |
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Personal Income, M/M change
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| Actual |
1.7%
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| Consensus |
0.3%
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| Consensus Range |
0.1%
to
1.0%
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Consumer Spending, M/M change
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Actual
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-0.4%
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| Consensus |
0.5%
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| Consensus Range |
-0.1%
to
0.7%
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Highlights
Personal income soared 1.7% in September, reflecting hurricane distortions and an easy month-to-month comparison following a downward revised 0.9% swing lower in August.
Personal spending rose 0.5% in the month while core prices, up 0.2%, continued to show limited pressure despite high energy costs. Note that the data, part of prior GDP and CPI reports, offer new details but are still old news.
Hurricane insurance payments more than offset the combination of reduced rents and lower proprietor income. Excluding hurricane effects (however useful the reading), the Commerce Department said income would have risen a solid 0.5% in September and 0.3% in August.
Wages and salaries rose nicely in the latest month, but not the saving's rate which keeps contracting, down 0.4% for the fourth straight negative reading! These are the lowest readings in the nearly 50 years of related records. How long personal spending can continue to rise while savings dip is becoming a central question for the economic outlook and for policy makers.
The biggest headline in the report is no surprise and will likely be overlooked, but overall prices did jump 0.9% in the month -- the largest gain in 24 years! But the tame core reading and the October retreat in energy prices diminish the importance of the gain, at least for the financial markets but certainly not at the Federal Reserve.
Nevertheless, the rise in spending should limit concerns over the health of future spending. Financial markets showed little reaction to the report.
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Market Consensus Before Announcement
Personal income decreased 0.1 percent in August stemming from more weakness in the employment data for the month; September figures were not weak outside of hurricane-related activity, but this should nonetheless affect personal income for the month. Personal consumption expenditures declined 0.5 percent in August due to a drop in durable goods spending. Motor vehicle sales fell again in September, but by a smaller magnitude; otherwise retail sales were relatively healthy in September.
Personal income Consensus Forecast for Sept 05: 0.3 percent Range: 0.1 to 1.0 percent
Personal consumption expenditures Consensus Forecast for Sept 05: 0.5 percent Range: -0.1 to 0.7 percent
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Trends
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Changes in taxes or social security cost of living adjustments can cause some sharp variations in monthly disposable income growth. However, on the whole, monthly changes in disposable income fluctuate less than monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures. |
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Monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures are usually skewed by large changes in spending on durable goods. Spending on nondurable goods and services tend to be less volatile from one month to the next.
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Data Source: Haver Analytics
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Personal Income and Outlays:
2005
Release Schedule
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