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Personal Income and Outlays
Definition
Personal income is the dollar value of income received from all sources by individuals. Personal outlays include consumer purchases of durable and nondurable goods, and services.  Why Investors Care

Released on 9/1/05 For Jul 2005
Personal Income, M/M change
 Actual 0.3%  
 Consensus 0.6%  
 Consensus Range 0.4%  to  0.7%  
   
Consumer Spending, M/M change
  Actual 1.0%  
 Consensus 1.0%  
 Consensus Range 0.7%  to  1.3%  

Highlights
Personal income rose 0.3% in July, at the low end of trend and below a 0.5% rise in June. In a good sign, private wages & salaries rose sharply, while proprietor and rental income fell.

Personal spending jumped 1.0% for a second straight month, fed once again by a big jump, this time 4.7%, in spending on durable goods, a reflection of heavy car and light truck purchases. Spending on non-durable goods rose 0.6% compared to a 0.7% gain in June, while spending on services rose 0.4%.

The big jump in spending together with the small rise in income led to a 0.6% decline in the savings rate, well below the unchanged reading in June which itself was well below prior months. The latest savings reading is lowest since records start in 1959.

Consumers apparently dipped into their savings to get in on the big auto incentives that began in June. With the consumer tapping out, the incentive push has clearly moved sales forward at the expense of future sales -- a negative not only for future sales but for future production and future employment in auto-related industries.

In a final piece of data, core PCE prices rose a mild 0.1% and are up a tame 1.8% year-on-year.

The report is certain to make headlines in the general press, especially the bad news on the savings rate. But the data point to a strong start to third quarter consumption, no surprise given the auto push.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Personal income increased 0.5 percent in June. The July gain could be similar since private nonfarm payrolls increased 0.2 percent, hourly earnings rose 0.4 percent, and the average workweek was unchanged. Personal consumption expenditures grew 0.8 percent in June. Motor vehicle sales jumped in July and this should boost total consumer spending for the month.

Personal income Consensus Forecast for July 05: 0.6 percent
Range: 0.4 to 0.7 percent

Personal consumption expenditures Consensus Forecast for July 05: 1.0 percent
Range: 0.7 to 1.3 percent
Trends
[Chart] Changes in taxes or social security cost of living adjustments can cause some sharp variations in monthly disposable income growth. However, on the whole, monthly changes in disposable income fluctuate less than monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures.

[Chart] Monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures are usually skewed by large changes in spending on durable goods. Spending on nondurable goods and services tend to be less volatile from one month to the next.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
Personal Income and Outlays: 2005 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/31 2/28 3/31 4/29 5/27 6/30 8/2 9/1 9/30 10/31 12/1 12/22
Released For: Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov


 
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