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Personal Income and Outlays
Definition
Personal income is the dollar value of income received from all sources by individuals. Personal outlays include consumer purchases of durable and nondurable goods, and services.  Why Investors Care

Released on 6/30/05 For May 2005
Personal Income, M/M change
 Actual 0.2%  
 Consensus 0.4%  
 Consensus Range 0.2%  to  0.6%  
   
Consumer Spending, M/M change
  Actual 0.0%  
 Consensus 0.1%  
 Consensus Range -0.1%  to  0.4%  

Highlights
Personal income rose 0.2% in May while spending, held back by weak demand for autos, was unchanged -- both soft readings that point to a mild slowing in economic growth.

Price readings were quiet: The PCE deflator (closely watched at the Federal Reserve) was unchanged, down from two straight monthly gains of 0.4%, while the core PCE deflator was up 0.2% in the month and 1.6% on the year, right in line with its modest year-long trend.

On the income side, wages & salaries were up only 0.1%, but the result is more favorable when averaged in with last month's 0.7% jump. On the spending side, durable goods dropped 2.0% reflecting weakness in auto spending. Despite the trouble, real expenditures are up a respectable 2.4% in April and May compared with the first-quarter when they rose at a 3.6% pace. The savings rate inched one tenth higher in the month to a paltry 0.6%.

Markets showed no reaction to the data, which nevertheless point to a slowing rate of economic growth. The markets could get a bigger jolt out of the Chicago purchasers report at 10:00 ET.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Personal income increased 0.7 percent in April. May gains could be more moderate since nonfarm payrolls inched up modestly, hourly earnings grew more slowly than in April, and the average workweek was unchanged. Personal consumption expenditures grew 0.6 percent in April. Retail sales declined in May - and this points to slower growth in personal consumption expenditures as well.

Personal income Consensus Forecast for May 05: 0.4 percent
Range: 0.2 to 0.6 percent

Personal consumption expenditures Consensus Forecast for May 05: 0.1 percent
Range: -0.1 to 0.4 percent
Trends
[Chart] Changes in taxes or social security cost of living adjustments can cause some sharp variations in monthly disposable income growth. However, on the whole, monthly changes in disposable income fluctuate less than monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures.

[Chart] Monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures are usually skewed by large changes in spending on durable goods. Spending on nondurable goods and services tend to be less volatile from one month to the next.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
Personal Income and Outlays: 2005 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/31 2/28 3/31 4/29 5/27 6/30 8/2 9/1 9/30 10/31 12/1 12/22
Released For: Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov


 
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