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New Home Sales
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Definition
New home sales measure the number of newly constructed homes with a committed sale during the month. The level of new home sales indicates housing market trends and, in turn, economic momentum and consumer purchases of furniture and appliances. Why Investors Care
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| Released on
1/31/05
For
Dec 2004 |
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New Home Sales, Level, SAAR
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| Actual |
1,098,000
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| Consensus |
1,200,000
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| Consensus Range |
1,150,000
to
1,250,000
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Highlights
New home sales, like existing home sales reported last week, came in weaker-than-expected in December.
New home sales rose only 0.1 percent to a 1.098 million seasonally adjusted annual rate, well off the 1.200 million expected.
Adding to the bad news were downward revisions to November's rate (1.097 million from 1.125 million) as well as October's rate (1.263 million from 1.278).
Supply on the market rose to 4.8 months from 4.7. But slower sales or not, the median price rose 1.4 percent to $222,000 (up 13.3 percent on the year).
Regionally, the Northeast and South saw big declines while the Midwest jumped sharply (the differing regional results are not likely related to weather since they differ significantly from the breakdown of existing home sales).
Low mortgage rates have been helping sales but haven't been able to spark a fire. New home sales averaged 1.153 million in the fourth quarter, down slightly from 1.155 million in the third.
Though new and existing home sales proved disappointing in December, housing starts and permits in the month were strong. Still the results will deepen the suspicion that the nation's housing market has likely peaked and that prospects of higher mortgage rates ahead, the presumed result of Federal Reserve restraint, will bite into activity through the year.
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Market Consensus Before Announcement
New single family home sales plunged 12 percent in November after posting healthy gains in each of the two previous months. Sales fell in every region of the country but the South in November. With low mortgage rates and generally good weather, it is possible that sales will rebound in December.
New home sales Consensus Forecast for Dec 04: 1,200,000 unit rate Range: 1,150,000 to 1,250,000 unit rate
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Trends
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There is no question that lower interest rates boost home sales. Other factors also impact housing decisisions, such as employment and income growth, and wealth stemming from stock market gains. |
Data Source: Haver Analytics
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