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2005 U.S. Economic Events & Analysis
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Motor Vehicle Sales
Definition
Unit sales of domestically produced cars and light duty trucks (including sport utility vehicles and mini-vans). Individual manufacturers report usually report sales on the first business day of the month. Motor vehicle sales are good indicators of trends in consumer spending.  Why Investors Care

Released on 11/1/05 For Oct 2005
Domestic Vehicle Sales
 Actual 11.4M  
 Consensus 12.6M  
 Consensus Range 11.3M  to  12.8M  

Highlights
Housing data may not be showing it, and general merchandise chains may not be feeling it, but the auto industry is getting clobbered by high gas prices and limited consumer spirit. Domestic-made car sales crept in at a 5.2 million annual rate, but it was truck sales that were most frightening in October, at a very weak 6.2 million rate -- the worst rate since late 1998! The wider effects of gas prices may be elusive so far, but not here.

Declines were posted by just about all makers, especially GM. Ford also posted sharp declines. These results have effects outside the auto industry, perhaps signaling more financial trouble for the two. Shares in the companies were lower in late trading.

Chain stores will report their results on Thursday to round out the outlook for next week's retail trade data. Indications from chains is positive on the month, in what is likely to be a sharp contrast to vehicle sales.

Retailers and economists have been warning for months that high gas prices will limit discretionary spending -- and the first hit are SUV and light-truck gas hogs. There was little reaction to the data, which are certain to weigh down early estimates of fourth-quarter economic growth.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Domestic motor vehicle sales dropped 2.3 percent in September to a 13 million-unit rate as automakers face a payback on their incentive-boosted sales from this summer. Domestic cars were sold at a 5.6 million-unit rate and light trucks were sold at a 7.3 million-unit rate in September.

Domestic vehicle sales Consensus Forecast for Oct 05: 12.6 million-unit rate
Range: 11.3 to 12.8 million-unit rate
Trends
[Chart] Motor vehicle sales remained in the same range in 2004 as 2003. Consumers continue to buy more SUVs than cars: note the share of light trucks (as a percent of the total) increased in 2004 despite rapidly rising gasoline prices.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2005 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/4 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/3 6/1 7/1 8/2 9/1 10/3 11/1 12/1
Released For: Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov


 
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