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2005 U.S. Economic Events & Analysis
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Jobless Claims
Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care

Released on 11/3/05 For wk 10/29 2005
New Claims, Level
 Actual 323K  
 Consensus 330K  
 Consensus Range 315K  to  348K  

Highlights
First-time jobless claims fell 8,000 to 323,000 in the Oct. 29 week as the effects of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita fade. The four-week average for initial claims fell a sharp 17,000 to 350,500.

The effects of Wilma, however, are beginning to appear, adding 1,400 claims in the week. But Wilma's effect is mild compared to Katrina and Rita, which added another 18,000 claims in the week. Total impact so far from Katrina and Rita are a huge 520,000.

Some of these prior initial claims have shifted over to continuing claims, which have risen by about 250,000 since Sept. 3. But continuing claims in the latest week did dip, down 44,000 to 2.823 million (tally is for Oct. 22 week). The four-week average for continuing claims is higher at 2.853 million.

The dollar showed no reaction to the data, which were accompanied by a strong productivity report at 8:30 a.m. ET. Bonds are up on the productivity data, not on jobless claims that point to new post-hurricane strength in the nation's jobs market -- a plus for tomorrow's employment report.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
New jobless claims fell 28,000 in the week ended October 22 to 328,000. Fewer and fewer claims are related to hurricanes Katrina and Rita each week. This latest week's level of claims is similar to that seen in the week ended September 3.

Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 10/29/05: 330,000 (2,000)
Range: 315,000 to 348,000
Trends
[Chart] Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

 
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