Econoday Report: Import and Export Prices 10, 2005

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Import and Export Prices

Definition
Indexes are compiled for the prices of goods that are bought in the United States but produced abroad and the prices of goods sold abroad but produced domestically. These prices indicate inflationary trends in internationally traded products. Why Investors Care

Released on 6/10/05 For May 2005

Import Prices, M/M change
Actual	-1.3%
Consensus	-0.3%
Consensus Range	-0.6% to 0.8%

Export Prices, M/M change
Actual	-0.1%
Consensus	N/A

Highlights
Import prices fell back in May, down 1.3% to end a string of sharp increases but reflecting what could be a temporary decline in the price of oil. Prices of imported petroleum fell 6.5%.

But import prices excluding petroleum -- a closely watched measure for indications of import price inflation -- also fell, down 0.3%.

Year-on-year import prices excluding petroleum are up 2.5%, a manageable rate that shouldn't raise too much concern at the Federal Reserve. Note yesterday that Alan Greenspan referred to modest pressure on import prices as a positive for the economic outlook.

Export prices also fell in May, down 0.1%. Non-agriculture export prices fell 0.4% while agriculture prices rose 2.0%.

These data don't move markets but, together with this morning's trade report, are a positive for the economic outlook.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Import prices increased 0.8 percent in April, much less than in March. Non-oil import prices increased 0.4 percent during the month, posting the largest gain since last December. Crude oil prices moderated in May and this could help dampen the import price index for the month.

Import prices Consensus Forecast for May 05: -0.3 percent
Range: -0.6 to 0.8 percent

Trends

Yearly changes in import and export prices reveal long term trends in inflation for tradable goods.

Data Source: Haver Analytics

2005 Release Schedule

Released On: 1/13 2/17 3/18 4/15 5/13 6/10 7/13 8/12 9/9 10/13 11/10 12/14

Released For: Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov