• Research
  • > Markets & Sectors
2005 U.S. Economic Events & Analysis
Resource Center »  U.S. & International Recaps   |   Release Dates   |   Why Investors Care    |   Today's Calendar

FOMC Meeting Announcement
Definition
The Federal Open Market Committee consists of the seven Governors of the Federal Reserve Board and five Federal Reserve Bank presidents. The FOMC meets eight times a year in order to determine the near-term direction of monetary policy. Changes in monetary policy are now announced immediately after FOMC meetings.  Why Investors Care

Released on 12/13/05 For Nov 2005
Federal Funds Rate, Target Level
 Actual 4.25%  
 Consensus 4.25%  
 Previous 3.75 %  

Highlights
The Federal Reserve as expected raised their overnight bank lending rate 25 basis points to 4.25%. But more importantly policy makers also offered light at the end of the tunnel, dropping the word "accommodation" and adding that only "some further" policy firming is needed. The statement will mark an end to regular expectations of 25-basis-point hikes.

Policy makers did indicate new concern over capacity constraints, pointing to possible pressure from increases in "resource utilization." Capacity constraints would represent a key threat to price stability and may be seen as a new factor that will keep the Fed's vigilance high. But the statement repeated that core inflation is low and that longer-term expectations are contained.

Bonds firmed in immediate reaction to the data and hopes that interest rates are peaking, which is also a plus for stocks which also popped higher. The dollar eased back on the announcement, which points to narrower interest rate spreads in the international markets.

The following is the main part of the statement:

"Despite elevated energy prices and hurricane-related disruptions, the expansion in economic activity appears solid. Core inflation has stayed relatively low in recent months and longer-term inflation expectations remain contained. Nevertheless possible increases in resource utilization as well as elevated energy prices have the potential to add to inflation pressures.

"The Committee judges that some further measured policy firming is likely to be needed to keep the risks to the attainment of both sustainable economic growth and price stability roughly in balance. In any event, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to foster these objectives."

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The Fed is not likely to surprise market players on Tuesday when they announce a rate hike of 25 basis points in the federal funds rate target at the end of their FOMC Meeting. However, speculation has heightened over how the post-meeting statement will change.

Fed funds rate target Consensus Forecast for Dec. 13: 4.25 percent (+0.25 pct)
Range: None
Trends
[Chart] The Fed closely monitors the core PCE deflator to indicate whether or not policy is approximately correct, overly accommodative, or too restrictive. The PCE deflator is prefered to the CPI because it is more closely aligned to the cost of living than the CPI (which measures a fixed basket of goods & services.)

This chart covers monthly data and the fed funds target rate reflects the monthly average. As such, it will not correspond to the most recent fed funds rate target announced by the Fed.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2005 Release Schedule
Released On: 2/2 3/22 5/3 6/30 8/9 9/20 11/1 12/13
Released For: Jan Feb Apr May Jul Aug Oct Nov


 
powered by [Econoday]