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Consumer Credit
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Definition
The dollar value of consumer installment credit outstanding. Changes in consumer credit indicate the state of consumer finances and portend future spending patterns. Why Investors Care
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| Released on
12/7/05
For
Oct 2005 |
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Consumer Credit, M/M change
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| Actual |
$-7.2B
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| Consensus |
$5.9B
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| Consensus Range |
$-0.5B
to
$8.0B
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| Previous |
$
4.9
B
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Highlights
Consumer credit fell a surprising and sharp $7.2 billion in October, but the drop was offset in part by a sharp upward revision to September to a $4.1 billion rise from an originally reported dip of $0.1 billion.
Non-revolving credit showed a big $5.5 billion contraction, reflecting still slow auto sales likely made weaker by rising car loan rates (6.13% Oct. vs. 5.89% Sept.). Revolving credit fell $1.6 billion in the month.
Though credit totals are slipping, a pop up in today's mortgage bankers' refinancing index offers a reminder that consumers continue to use home equity loans to finance purchases. Wednesday's data had no impact on the financial markets.
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Market Consensus Before Announcement
Consumer installment credit dipped $0.1 billion in September after posting strong gains in the three previous months. Given the slowdown in motor vehicle sales, it wouldn't be a surprise to see continued moderation in October consumer credit usage either.
Consumer credit Consensus Forecast for Oct 05: $5.9 billion Range: $-0.5 to $8.0 billion
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Trends
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The debt-to-income ratio shows how indebted consumers are relative to income. A rising ratio indicates that consumers are taking on greater debt burdens with respect to income growth. In a growing economy, this may not be dangerous. However, indebtedness could quickly become a problem if income and employment conditions turn around. The yearly change in debt outstanding shows yearly trends in debt growth and tends to be less volatile than the monthly change. |
Data Source: Haver Analytics
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