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Consumer Confidence
Definition
The Conference Board compiles a survey of consumer attitudes on present economic conditions and expectations of future conditions. Five thousand consumers across the country are surveyed each month. While the level of consumer confidence is associated with consumer spending, the two do not move in tandem each and every month.  Why Investors Care

Released on 10/30/07 For Oct 2007
Confidence Index - Level
 Actual 95.6  
 Consensus 99.0  
 Consensus Range 97.0  to  100.5  
 Previous 99.8  

Highlights
Consumer confidence is down to its lowest level since Hurricane Katrina and before that to the beginning of the 2001 expansion. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 95.6 in October vs. September's 99.5. The index hit as high as 111.9 in July, a cyclical peak and just before the credit squeeze of August.

Among the report's details, declines in the present situation index eased as the index slipped about 2 points to 118.8. This index fell 9 points in September signaling a tick higher in the month's unemployment rate to 4.7 percent. Job readings for the present situation were soft. The spread between those saying jobs are plentiful and hard to get narrowed from 3.2 points to 1.5 points (24.1 percent vs. 22.6 percent). This spread was as high as 11.3 in July. The current weakness points to limited strength in the nation's labor market.

Twelve-month inflation expectations rose a tenth to 5.1 percent, a reading that won't please Federal Reserve officials who meet today. But softening consumer spirits are consistent with a recent run of soft economic data that likely assure a rate cut for tomorrow's FOMC statement. Treasury prices firmed slightly and the dollar eased slightly in immediate reaction to the data.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index tumbled in September to 99.8 from 105.6 in August. Confidence in the present situation fell to 121.7 from 130.1 while the expectations index declined to 85.2 from 89.2 in August. Surprisingly, inflation expectations were stable.

Consumer confidence Consensus Forecast for October 07: 99.0
Range: 97.0 to 100.5
Trends
[Chart] Typically retail sales will move in tandem with consumer optimism - although not necessarily each and every month.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2007 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/30 2/27 3/27 4/24 5/29 6/26 7/31 8/28 9/25 10/30 11/27 12/27
Released For: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec


 
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