July 12, 2018
Jerome Powell said in a radio interview today that the Fed is "really close" to its inflation target, underscored by today's year-on-year core CPI index which rose a tenth and points to a settling in for the Fed's core PCE rate right at the 2.0 percent target. Powell said the outlook for the economy, getting a boost from tax cuts and higher government spending, is very solid, but he warned that a sustained period of tariffs could upend the outlook.
Money moved into the stock market as the Dow rose 0.9 percent to 24,924 for a 1.9 gain so far this week. The 10-year Treasury yield held steady at 2.85 percent with the 2-year rising slightly to 2.60 percent making for a narrow 25 basis point spread between the two key rates. Oil continues to hold right at $70 with gold near $1,250. The dollar was little changed.