2018 Economic Calendar
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Dallas Fed Mfg Survey  
Released On 2/26/2018 10:30:00 AM For Feb, 2018
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Production Index16.8 27.9 
General Activity Index33.4 31.0 22.0  to 35.0 37.2 

The Dallas Fed is clearly surpassing the Philly Fed as the very hottest of the regional and private manufacturing surveys. Dallas' general activity index jumped to 37.2 in February, easily above Econoday's high estimate and the strongest reading of the post-2008 expansion.

Shipments, at 32.1, are also at an expansion high but stress is the building indication from this report as unfilled orders continue to pile up, rising to an unusually strong 11.5 this month. Unfilled orders will continue to build based on incoming orders which are steady and very strong at 25.3. Capacity utilization is up, delivery times continue to slow, and prices look like they may be overheating, especially wages and inputs but also including selling prices where traction is strong and at an expansion high.

Growth in hiring, up in January to 19.1, is still keeping pace but continued demand would raise questions about the region's available labor supply. Respondents in small-sample reports, like this one from Dallas, continue to report far stronger conditions than those tracked in definitive factory data where growth has been uneven and, as yet, moderate.

Consensus Outlook
February's consensus for the Dallas Fed general activity index is 31.0 which would mark little change from January's extremely robust 33.4. Unsustainable strength is the risk with this sample as new orders keep pouring in, unfilled orders continue to build, and manufacturers in the region, facing long delivery delays and rising work hours as well as elevated prices, may have trouble keeping up with demand.

The Dallas Fed conducts this monthly survey of manufacturers in Texas regarding their operations in the state. Participants from across the state represent a variety of industries. In the latter half of the month, the questions for the manufacturing survey are electronically transmitted to respondents and answers are collected over a few days. About 100 manufacturers regularly participate in the Dallas Fed survey, which began collecting data in mid-2004. Participants are asked whether various indicators have increased, decreased or remained unchanged. Answers cover changes over the previous month and expectations for activity six months into the future. The breakeven point for each index is zero with positive numbers indicating growth and negative numbers reflecting decline.  Why Investors Care

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/292/263/264/305/296/257/308/279/2410/2911/26
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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