2018 Economic Calendar
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Chicago Fed National Activity Index  
Released On 1/22/2018 8:30:00 AM For Dec, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Level0.15 0.11 0.25 -0.15  to 0.36 0.27 
3 Month Moving Average0.41 0.43 0.42 

Mining and utility output helped drive the national activity index to 0.27 in December vs a revised 0.11 percent in November and October's revised 0.87 outsized gain in a month that reflected the reversal of hurricane effects. October's gain is inflating the 3-month average which is up slightly at 0.42.

December's contribution from the production component jumped to 0.25 from November's minus 0.02 as mining and utilities, up a monthly 1.6 and 5.6 percent in the industrial production report, offset a soft 0.1 percent gain for manufacturing. The sales, orders & inventories component contributed 0.08 to December's headline gain, up from November's 0.04, and together with production offset weakness in employment, at plus 0.01 vs November's plus 0.12, and also personal consumption & housing, at minus 0.07 vs minus 0.03 with the report citing a step back in housing starts as the main factor for December's decline.

Putting mining and utilities aside, this report is mixed given the weakness in manufacturing, employment and also the housing reading.

Consensus Outlook
The economy is solid based on the national activity index which firmed through the second half of 2017 and included a 0.15 gain in November. Retail sales are likely to be a positive in the December report with building permits neutral. The manufacturing component of the industrial production report is a likely weakness. The consensus for December's national activity index is 0.25.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index that tracks overall economic activity and inflationary pressures. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.  Why Investors Care

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/222/263/264/235/216/257/238/279/2410/2211/2612/24
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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