| International Trade in Goods
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Released On 4/26/2018 8:30:00 AM For Mar, 2018
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Prior | Prior Revised | Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual |
| Balance | $-75.4 B | $-75.9 B | $-74.5 B | $-75.9 B to $-71.0 B | $-68.0 B | | Exports % change | 2.2 % | 2.3 % | | | 2.5 % | | Imports % change | 1.4 % | 1.7 % | | | -2.1 % |
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Highlights
A decline in imports eased the nation's goods deficit in March which came in much better than expected, at $68.0 billion and well under February's revised $75.9 billion.
Imports fell 2.1 percent with declines nearly across the board including a sharp 3.1 percent drop for capital goods and a 2.3 percent dip for consumer goods. Tariffs on steel and aluminum were imposed in March but there's no clear evidence of its effects in the initial data though imports of industrial supplies did fall 1.9 percent.
Exports have been very solid and rose 2.5 percent in March with gains led by a 4.0 percent jump in capital goods, which is the nation's key strength, and an 8.5 percent burst for food products.
After today's report, net exports don't look to be as much of a challenge for tomorrow's first-quarter GDP results as had been expected.
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Consensus Outlook
The goods deficit is expected to narrow to a consensus $74.5 billion in March vs $77.0 billion in February (revised from an initial $75.4 billion). March's report will offer some of the first hints, if any, on the cross-border effects of U.S. metal tariffs.
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Definition
The Census Bureau is now publishing an advance report on U.S. international trade in goods. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will incorporate these data into its estimates of exports and imports for the advance GDP estimates. This is expected to reduce the size of revisions to GDP growth in the second estimates.
Note that data in the advance goods report are accounted for on a census basis and can differ slightly from subsequent data in the international trade report where goods data are accounted for on a balance of payment basis to adjust for changes in ownership that can occur without goods passing into or out of the US.
Why Investors Care
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