2018 Economic Calendar
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Factory Orders  
Released On 7/3/2018 10:00:00 AM For May, 2018
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Factory Orders - M/M change-0.8 %-0.4 %0.0 %-2.2 % to 0.5 %0.4 %

Highlights
May proved to be a good month for manufacturing after all as factory orders rose 0.4 percent vs Econoday's consensus for no change. Durable orders did slip 0.4 percent on an expected downswing in aircraft orders which otherwise have been strong and also on supply snags tied to a fire at an auto supplier. Orders for nondurables, the new data in today's report, proved very strong on energy products, rising 1.1 percent on the month on gains for petroleum and coal.

Solid news comes from capital goods where core orders (nondefense ex-aircraft) rose a respectable 0.3 percent on top of the prior month's 2.0 percent surge. Shipments for this reading in May, which are inputs into GDP business investment, are revised higher from last week's advance data, up 3 tenths from the initial reading to a gain of 0.2 percent (in an offset, April's shipments are revised 2 tenths lower to what is still a very strong 0.8 percent gain).

Orders for steel, where tariffs are in effect, slipped in May after rising strongly the prior two months with aluminum orders extending a strong 3-month run. Inventories for the metals are building strongly. A major positive in this report is a fourth straight strong build for total unfilled orders, up 0.5 percent which hints at strength for factory payrolls in Friday's employment report.

This report overshadows a decline in the Federal Reserve's measure of manufacturing production, one skewed lower by a cut in factory hours tied to the auto sector snag, and it closes the book favorably on May. Advance factory data so far in June have been mostly strong including yesterday's ISM report and month-end upgrade for the manufacturing PMI. Tariffs and the risk of trade disruptions aside, the factory sector is a major driver right now for the 2018 economy.

Consensus Outlook
Durable goods orders for May slipped back both at the headline level and when excluding transportation equipment, yet the report nevertheless showed fundamental strength highlighted by another strong build in unfilled orders. Forecasters see factory orders in May, a report that will include data on non-durable goods, coming in unchanged.

Definition
Factory orders represent the dollar level of new orders for both durable and nondurable goods. This report gives more complete information than the advance durable goods report which is released one or two weeks earlier in the month.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Even though monthly shipment data fluctuate less than new orders, both series show underlying trends more clearly by looking at year-over-year changes. In 2005 for example,new orders rose more rapidly than shipments due to large gains in aircraft orders. Aircraft orders have a long lead to shipment.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/52/23/64/45/36/47/38/29/610/411/212/6
Release For: NovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct
 


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