2018 Economic Calendar
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ISM Non-Mfg Index  
Released On 6/5/2018 10:00:00 AM For May, 2018
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Composite Index - Level56.8 58.0 56.8  to 59.0 58.6 

Highlights
Higher costs tied to tariffs and the shifting outlook for trade are central concerns of ISM's non-manufacturing sample which once again shows month-to-month growth across all 18 sectors tracked. May's composite index came in at the high-end of Econoday's consensus range, at 58.6 for a sizable 1.8 point gain from April. The component giving the biggest lift in May is delivery time which lengthened sharply to indicate rising congestion in the supply chain. Shortages in the transportation sector, including for truck drivers, are cited.

Labor shortages are also cited in construction, one sector that this report covers that isn't covered by PMI services, released earlier this morning and showing similar strength. Mining is the second sector not covered in the PMI services report and this sector is the leading one in today's ISM.

Rising backlogs are a consistent theme of all the small sample surveys including today's ISM as are rising input costs, both showing strong acceleration at already unusually high levels. Inventories are also rising and business activity is up. With tariffs in effect and trade questions in the background, May was a very strong month for the U.S. economy based on the host of small-sample surveys.

Consensus Outlook
Acceleration is the call for the ISM non-manufacturing index which fell back in April due to a shortening in delivery times, one that may have proven temporary given continuing reports of substantial delays in other data. New orders were very strong in April and point to general strength for the May report. Forecasters see the index rising 1.2 points to 58.0.

Definition
The Institute For Supply Management surveys more than 375 firms from numerous sectors across the United States for its non-manufacturing index. This index covers services, construction, mining, agriculture, forestry, and fishing and hunting. The non-manufacturing composite index has four equally weighted components: business activity (closely related to a production index), new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries (also known as vendor performance). The first three components are seasonally adjusted but the supplier deliveries index does not have statistically significant seasonality and is not adjusted. For the composite index, a reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. The supplier deliveries component index requires extra explanation. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. However, slower deliveries are a plus for the economy -- indicating demand is up and vendors are not able to fill orders as quickly.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The ISM non-manufacturing survey does not compile a composite index like its manufacturing cousin. The business activity index, which is actually akin to the production index in the manufacturing survey, is widely followed as the key figure from this survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/52/53/54/45/36/57/58/39/610/311/512/5
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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