2018 Economic Calendar
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ISM Non-Mfg Index  
Released On 1/5/2018 10:00:00 AM For Dec, 2017
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Composite Index - Level57.4 57.6 56.5  to 58.0 55.9 

Highlights
A little bit of cooling can be a good thing especially for a sample that has been reporting unusually strong and perhaps unsustainable strength. ISM's non-manufacturing index slowed by 1.5 points in December to a 55.9 level that misses Econoday's low estimate.

But the level is still very favorable with details led by a 1.0 point rise in employment to 56.3. New orders did slow a sharp 4.4 points but also remain well in plus-50 positive ground at 54.2 with new export orders strong at 56.5 and a reminder that service exports are a major positive for the U.S. economy. But backlog orders, at 50.0 exactly, were flat while business activity (which is a production reading) slowed by 4.1 points to 57.3.

The breakdown shows a very solid 14 of 17 industries reporting monthly growth led by retail which is hint of strength for December's retail sales report which comes out next week. Mining and construction, which are non-service industries that are tracked in this report, both posted monthly gains. The headline aside, this report is consistent with a strong year-end finish for the economy.

Consensus Outlook
The ISM non-manufacturing index cooled noticeably in November, falling 1.6 points to 57.4 and failing to meet low end expectations. Most readings eased by several points including new orders, backlog orders and employment. Still November's readings were very favorable as they have been all year. 57.6 is the Econoday consensus for December.

Definition
The Institute For Supply Management surveys more than 375 firms from numerous sectors across the United States for its non-manufacturing index. This index covers services, construction, mining, agriculture, forestry, and fishing and hunting. The non-manufacturing composite index has four equally weighted components: business activity (closely related to a production index), new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries (also known as vendor performance). The first three components are seasonally adjusted but the supplier deliveries index does not have statistically significant seasonality and is not adjusted. For the composite index, a reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. The supplier deliveries component index requires extra explanation. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. However, slower deliveries are a plus for the economy -- indicating demand is up and vendors are not able to fill orders as quickly.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The ISM non-manufacturing survey does not compile a composite index like its manufacturing cousin. The business activity index, which is actually akin to the production index in the manufacturing survey, is widely followed as the key figure from this survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/52/53/54/45/36/57/58/39/610/311/512/5
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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