2018 Economic Calendar
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ISM Mfg Index  
Released On 10/1/2018 10:00:00 AM For Sep, 2018
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
ISM Mfg Index - Level61.3 59.9 59.0  to 61.0 59.8 

Highlights
Modest easing in new orders headlines what is another exceptionally strong ISM manufacturing report where the headline index, at 59.8 for September, came in right at expectations. New orders slowed more than 3 points but remain very strong, at 61.8 and with export orders, in contrast to this morning's PMI manufacturing report, also strong at 56.0.

The build in backlog orders eased 2 points but remains elevated at 55.7 with other indications of capacity stress also easing but only slightly as both delivery delays and cost increases, at 66.9, remain heavy. The stress, however, isn't slowing production which rose 6 tenths to 63.9 for the strongest showing since January this year. The rate of inventory build eased slightly for both raw materials and finished goods.

In another contrast with this morning's PMI manufacturing report, hiring in this sample was very strong, at 58.8 for a 3 tenths gain from August for the strongest showing since February this year. Though consistently running much hotter than not only the manufacturing PMI but actual government data on the factory sector, today's ISM report is closely watched and will firm expectations for a strong 2018 finish for the nation's manufacturing sector.

Consensus Outlook
Easing strength at a very high level is what Econoday's forecasters see for the September ISM manufacturing index where the consensus is 59.9 vs an unusually strong 61.3 in August that far exceeded high-end expectations. Orders surged in August which should keep production and employment strong in the September report.

Definition
The manufacturing composite index from the Institute For Supply Management is a diffusion index calculated from five of the eleven sub-components of a monthly survey of purchasing managers at roughly 300 manufacturing firms nationwide. The survey queries purchasing managers about the general direction of production, new orders, order backlogs, their own inventories, customer inventories, employment, supplier deliveries, exports, imports, and prices. The five components of the composite index are new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories (their own, not customer inventories). The five components are equally weighted. The questions are qualitative rather than quantitative; that is, they ask about the general direction rather than the specific level of activity. Each question is adjusted into a diffusion index which is calculated by adding the percentage of positive responses to one-half of the unchanged responses.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Readings above 50 in the ISM manufacturing index signal month- to-month growth for U.S. manufacturing as a whole, while those below 50 indicate monthly contraction. For the economy as a whole, readings above 60 signal national GDP growth of 5 percent, while those below 43 signal GDP contraction.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/32/13/14/25/16/17/28/19/410/111/112/3
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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