2018 Economic Calendar
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ISM Mfg Index  
Released On 6/1/2018 10:00:00 AM For May, 2018
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
ISM Mfg Index - Level57.3 58.5 57.5  to 60.0 58.7 

Highlights
May's 58.7 headline is very strong but still understates the strength of the ISM manufacturing report. New orders are pouring into the sample, at 63.7 for a 2.5 point jump in the month, while backlog orders, like the PMI manufacturing report released earlier this morning, are piling up fast at a very usual level of 63.5 which is a 14-year high. And delivery delays are lengthening dramatically at 62.0 with input prices extremely elevated at 79.5, again both like the PMI report. All this activity is making ISM's sample concerned that inventories of finished goods are too low. The sample is also reporting disruptions tied to metal tariffs and, in a rare comment, the report warns that the sample is discussing second-half price increases.

Small-sample surveys like the ISM have been reporting strong conditions for more than a year but recent reports are clearly pointing to new acceleration. The question for the factory sector is the supply chain and whether it can expand to meet the demand before prices begin to climb.

Consensus Outlook
Forecasters see new acceleration for the ISM manufacturing index, to 58.5 vs 57.3 in an April report that however did show another month of strong growth for new orders. Input costs and delivery delays are at rare highs consistent with capacity stress for this sample.

Definition
The manufacturing composite index from the Institute For Supply Management is a diffusion index calculated from five of the eleven sub-components of a monthly survey of purchasing managers at roughly 300 manufacturing firms nationwide. The survey queries purchasing managers about the general direction of production, new orders, order backlogs, their own inventories, customer inventories, employment, supplier deliveries, exports, imports, and prices. The five components of the composite index are new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories (their own, not customer inventories). The five components are equally weighted. The questions are qualitative rather than quantitative; that is, they ask about the general direction rather than the specific level of activity. Each question is adjusted into a diffusion index which is calculated by adding the percentage of positive responses to one-half of the unchanged responses.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The ISM manufacturing index [formerly known as the NAPM Survey] is constructed so that any level at 50 or above signifies growth in the manufacturing sector. A level above 43 or so, but below 50, indicates that the U.S. economy is still growing even though the manufacturing sector is contracting. Any level below 43 indicates that the economy is in recession.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/32/13/14/25/16/17/28/19/410/111/112/3
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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