2018 Economic Calendar
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ISM Mfg Index  
Released On 5/1/2018 10:00:00 AM For Apr, 2018
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
ISM Mfg Index - Level59.3 58.6 57.5  to 60.0 57.3 

Highlights
Clear signs of stress are the continuing signals from ISM's manufacturing sample. But it's in the details where this is most apparent and less the composite index, at 57.3 in April which though very strong is still comparatively soft for this reading. Delivery times continue to lengthen, up 1/2 point to an unusual 61.1, and input costs continue to climb, up 1.2 points to 79.3. These are rare readings for this venerable survey.

Orders keep pouring in, at 61.2 with backlogs climbing more than 3 points to a very heavy 62.0. Metal tariffs, imposed in March, are disrupting business for at least some in the sample who are warning that business planning is being scrambled and that manpower is being dedicated to dealing with related issues and being shifted away from production. The nation's factory sector appears to be gaining momentum in what, however, may be an uneven environment.

Consensus Outlook
April's consensus for the ISM manufacturing index is 58.6 vs 59.3 in March which was yet another month when order readings for this sample were unusually strong. Delivery times have been lengthening and input costs have been at an 8-year high, both pointing to capacity constraints for this sample.

Definition
The manufacturing composite index from the Institute For Supply Management is a diffusion index calculated from five of the eleven sub-components of a monthly survey of purchasing managers at roughly 300 manufacturing firms nationwide. The survey queries purchasing managers about the general direction of production, new orders, order backlogs, their own inventories, customer inventories, employment, supplier deliveries, exports, imports, and prices. The five components of the composite index are new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories (their own, not customer inventories). The five components are equally weighted. The questions are qualitative rather than quantitative; that is, they ask about the general direction rather than the specific level of activity. Each question is adjusted into a diffusion index which is calculated by adding the percentage of positive responses to one-half of the unchanged responses.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The ISM manufacturing index [formerly known as the NAPM Survey] is constructed so that any level at 50 or above signifies growth in the manufacturing sector. A level above 43 or so, but below 50, indicates that the U.S. economy is still growing even though the manufacturing sector is contracting. Any level below 43 indicates that the economy is in recession.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/32/13/14/25/16/17/28/19/410/111/112/3
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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