2018 Economic Calendar
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ISM Mfg Index  
Released On 4/2/2018 10:00:00 AM For Mar, 2018
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
ISM Mfg Index - Level60.8 60.0 58.8  to 62.0 59.3 

Highlights
ISM manufacturing eased back from February's 14-year high, slipping 1.5 points and back below 60 to what is nevertheless an outstandingly strong 59.3 in March. And judging by sweeping strength for orders, whether new orders or export orders or backlog orders, the PMI may definitely return to 60 ground in the coming months.

Questions of capacity stress have to be raised given a second 60-plus reading for supplier deliveries which indicates lengthening times and suggests that the supply chain is increasingly jammed up. Input costs, at 78.1, are at an 8-year high. But stress isn't appearing yet in employment as the sample continues to find available applicants with the related index at a very strong 57.3, which however is down nearly 2 points from February.

This report proved its worth last year, being among the very first to report unusually strong conditions that actual data from the government is now increasingly confirming. But it's not really the strength of this sample that is most telling, rather it's the inflationary implications that will grab the most focus especially among policy makers at the Fed.

Consensus Outlook
March's consensus for the ISM manufacturing index is 60.0 vs 60.8 in February, a month that marked a 14-year high and which easily beat Econoday's top-end forecast. New orders and backlog orders have been rising sharply in this sample and capacity stress is evident with deliveries lengthening sharply and input prices going up.

Definition
The manufacturing composite index from the Institute For Supply Management is a diffusion index calculated from five of the eleven sub-components of a monthly survey of purchasing managers at roughly 300 manufacturing firms nationwide. The survey queries purchasing managers about the general direction of production, new orders, order backlogs, their own inventories, customer inventories, employment, supplier deliveries, exports, imports, and prices. The five components of the composite index are new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories (their own, not customer inventories). The five components are equally weighted. The questions are qualitative rather than quantitative; that is, they ask about the general direction rather than the specific level of activity. Each question is adjusted into a diffusion index which is calculated by adding the percentage of positive responses to one-half of the unchanged responses.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The ISM manufacturing index [formerly known as the NAPM Survey] is constructed so that any level at 50 or above signifies growth in the manufacturing sector. A level above 43 or so, but below 50, indicates that the U.S. economy is still growing even though the manufacturing sector is contracting. Any level below 43 indicates that the economy is in recession.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/32/13/14/25/16/17/28/19/410/111/112/3
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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