2018 Economic Calendar
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Industrial Production  
Released On 9/14/2018 9:15:00 AM For Aug, 2018
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Production - M/M change0.1 %0.4 %0.4 %0.1 % to 0.6 %0.4 %
Manufacturing - M/M0.3 %0.3 %0.2 % to 0.7 %0.2 %
Capacity Utilization Rate - Level78.1 %77.9 %78.3 %78.0 % to 78.5 %78.1 %

Highlights
Strength in mining and utilities offsets softness in manufacturing to lift industrial production 0.4 percent higher in August. Mining volumes rose 0.7 percent with July now revised sharply higher to also a 0.7 percent gain. Output at utilities jumped 1.2 percent with the prior month also revised higher. Not revised higher, however, is the key manufacturing reading which holds at a moderate 0.3 percent gain in July that was not matched in August which managed only a 0.2 percent and lower-than-expected rise.

Auto production was actually strong in August, up 4.0 percent in the month but was unable to hold up manufacturing as a whole as nonindustrial supplies including construction supplies remained flat. But output of hi-tech goods and also business equipment were nevertheless solid in the month.

The subdued performance of manufacturing echoes the Fed's Beige Book earlier in the week which described the sector as no better than moderate. This is quite a surprise given extraordinarily strong readings in many of the small sample reports especially the ISM. Yet mining is definitely strong and together with even moderate acceleration for manufacturing point to a solid year-end contribution from the industrial economy.

Note that traditional non-NAICS numbers for industrial production may differ marginally from NAICS basis figures.

Consensus Outlook
A bounce back is expected for industrial production, at a consensus increase of 0.4 percent in August vs July's very soft 0.1 percent gain that reflected a monthly downswing in mining, which has otherwise been very strong, and a third month of weakness for utilities. The manufacturing component is expected to rise 0.3 percent and match a 0.3 percent gain in July. Pressures on capacity utilization are expected to tighten 2 tenths to 78.3 percent.

Definition
The Federal Reserve's monthly index of industrial production and the related capacity indexes and capacity utilization rates cover manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. The industrial sector, together with construction, accounts for the bulk of the variation in national output over the course of the business cycle. The production index measures real output and is expressed as a percentage of real output in a base year, currently 2012. The capacity index, which is an estimate of sustainable potential output, is also expressed as a percentage of actual output in 2012. The rate of capacity utilization equals the seasonally adjusted output index expressed as a percentage of the related capacity index.

The index of industrial production is available nationally by market and industry groupings. The major groupings are comprised of final products (such as consumer goods, business equipment and construction supplies), intermediate products and materials. The industry groupings are manufacturing (further subdivided into durable and nondurable goods), mining and utilities. The capacity utilization rate -- reflecting the resource utilization of the nation's output facilities -- is available for the same market and industry groupings.

Industrial production was also revised to NAICS (North American Industry Classification System) in the early 2000s. Unlike other economic series that lost much historical data prior to 1992, the Federal Reserve Board was able to reconstruct historical data that go back more than 30 years.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The industrial sector accounts for less than 20 percent of GDP. Yet, it creates much of the cyclical variability in the economy.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
The capacity utilization rate reflects the limits to operating the nation's factories, mines and utilities. In the past, supply bottlenecks created inflationary pressures as the utilization rate hit 84 to 85 percent.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/172/153/164/175/166/157/178/159/1410/1611/1612/14
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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