2018 Economic Calendar
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PPI-FD  
Released On 10/10/2018 8:30:00 AM For Sep, 2018
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
PPI-FD - M/M change-0.1 %0.2 %0.0 % to 0.5 %0.2 %
PPI-FD - Y/Y change2.8 %2.6 %
PPI-FD less food & energy - M/M change-0.1 %0.2 %0.1 % to 0.3 %0.2 %
PPI-FD less food & energy - Y/Y change2.3 %2.5 %
PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services - M/M change0.1 %0.2 %0.2 % to 0.3 %0.4 %
PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services - Y/Y change2.9 %2.9 %

Highlights
A big jump in transport services headlines what is otherwise, however, another benign producer price report. The PPI-FD rose an as-expected 0.2 percent in September with the year-on-year rate slipping 2 tenths to 2.6 percent. But transport prices surged 1.8 percent in the month with this yearly rate showing very clear pressure at 5.9 percent. Lack of capacity in the shipping sector, including lack of trucks and especially lack of truck drivers, has been a serious constraint in 2018.

Otherwise the data once again look subdued. Goods prices fell 0.1 percent in September with energy down 0.8 percent and foods down 0.6 percent with the latter posting a 1.8 percent monthly drop for related exports. Construction prices, where capacity issues are also a concern, rose only 0.1 percent though the year-on-year rate did climb 2 tenths to 3.4 percent.

Overall service prices rose 0.3 percent in the month but this yearly rate remains tame at 2.4 percent. Trade service prices, which track wholesalers and retailers, fell sharply in August and July and managed only a 0.1 percent September increase with this yearly rate not showing much pressure at all, at only plus 0.9 percent.

Steel and aluminum prices, which jumped earlier this year on tariff effects, are turning tame, unchanged in the month for steel mill products and down 0.3 percent for aluminum mill shapes. Yet the yearly rates do reflect the earlier pressure, up 18.1 percent for steel and 10.7 percent for aluminum.

The isolated pressure for transportation and shipping aside, this report isn't showing any sustained pressure at all and contrasts starkly with the highly elevated indications for input costs in most anecdotal surveys. Today's results will not raise any alarms going into tomorrow's consumer price report where subdued results are also expected.

Consensus Outlook
Despite elevated input costs through most manufacturing reports, producer prices have been subdued. Following August's 0.1 percent decline, a rise of only 0.2 percent is expected for the September producer price headline. When excluding food and energy, prices are expected to also rise 0.2 percent as they are when also excluding food, energy and trade services.

Definition
The Producer Price Index (PPI) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is a family of indexes that measures the average change over time in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller. Effective with the January 2014 PPI data release in February 2014, BLS transitioned from the Stage of Processing (SOP) to the Final Demand-Intermediate Demand (FD-ID) aggregation system. The headline PPI (for Final Demand) measures price changes for goods, services, and construction sold to final demand: personal consumption, capital investment, government purchases, and exports.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Monthly changes in producer prices can be volatile and difficult to read, often the result of food and energy costs where large monthly swings are common. Excluding food and energy offers a smoother view.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
Year-on-year change, both overall and when excluding food and energy, offers a more accessible view of trends than month-to-month change.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/112/153/144/105/96/137/118/99/1210/1011/912/11
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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