2018 Economic Calendar
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Employment Situation  
Released On 6/1/2018 8:30:00 AM For May, 2018
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change164,000 159,000 190,000 155,000  to 220,000 223,000 
Unemployment Rate - Level3.9 %3.9 %3.8 % to 4.0 %3.8 %
Private Payrolls - M/M change168,000 162,000 184,000 150,000  to 217,000 218,000 
Manufacturing Payrolls - M/M change24,000 25,000 18,000 8,000  to 25,000 18,000 
Participation Rate - level62.8 %62.8 %62.8 % to 62.9 %62.7 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change0.1 %0.2 %0.1 % to 0.3 %0.3 %
Average Hourly Earnings - Y/Y change2.6 %2.7 %2.6 % to 2.8 %2.7 %
Av Workweek - All Employees34.5 hrs34.5 hrs34.5 hrs to 34.5 hrs34.5 hrs

Highlights
Employment growth is strong and it is not entirely without wage pressure. Nonfarm payrolls rose 223,000 in May to just top Econoday's high estimate while the unemployment rate moves down a tick to a new expansion low of 3.8 percent. The monthly gain for average hourly earnings came in at the high end of expectations, up 0.3 percent for a year-on-year rate that is up a tenth to 2.7 percent.

Payroll gains are led by trade & transportation, up 53,000 in the month for a sector where delivery delays have been climbing, and include solid 31,000 gains for both retail and also professional & business services with the gain for the latter suggesting that employers are scrambling to fill positions. Manufacturing payrolls rose 18,000 which hits Econoday's consensus with construction payrolls up 25,000.

The participation rate moves down a tenth to an even thinner 62.7 percent as the number of people actively looking for work is down 281,000 to 6.065 million. The workweek for all employees is unchanged at 34.5 hours though factory hours and factory overtime are down which point to give back for May's industrial production report.

But today's report is about strength and the risk that available slack in the labor force is disappearing and in turn raising the potential of wage inflation. The results clearly support expectations for a rate hike at this month's FOMC.

Consensus Outlook
Following a solid April, nonfarm payrolls are expected to extend their strength to May where Econoday's consensus is calling for a 190,000 rise. The unemployment rate, down 2 tenths to 3.9 percent, was the highlight of the April report with May's rate seen holding at 3.9 percent. A surprise in the April report was a lack of wage pressures and only marginally higher readings are expected for May, at 0.2 percent for monthly growth in average hourly earnings and a 1 tenth climb in the year-on-year rate to 2.7 percent. Private payrolls are expected to rise 184,000 with manufacturing payrolls seen increasing 18,000. The workweek is seen unchanged at 34.5 hours and the labor participation rate slipping 1 tenth in the month to 62.8 percent.

Definition
The most closely watched of all economic indicators, the employment situation is a set of monthly labor market indicators based on two separate reports: the establishment survey which tracks 650,000 worksites and offers the nonfarm payroll and average hourly earnings headlines and the household survey which interviews 60,000 households and generates the unemployment rate.

Nonfarm payrolls track the number of part-time and full-time employees in both business and government. Average hourly earnings track employee pay while the average workweek, also part of the establishment survey, tracks the number of hours worked. The report's private payroll measure excludes government workers.

The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. In order to be counted as unemployed, one must be actively looking for work. Other commonly known data from the household survey include the labor supply and discouraged workers.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
During the mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payrolls gains of 150,000 or so are considered relatively healthy. In the early stages of recovery though, gains are expected to surpass 250,000 per month.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
The civilian unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic activity. During a recession, many people leave the labor force entirely, so the jobless rate may not increase as much as expected. This means that the jobless rate may continue to increase in the early stages of recovery because more people are returning to the labor force as they believe they will be able to find work.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/52/23/94/65/46/17/68/39/710/511/212/7
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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