2018 Economic Calendar
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Durable Goods Orders  
Released On 1/26/2018 8:30:00 AM For Dec, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Orders - M/M change1.3 %1.7 %0.6 %-1.0 % to 1.5 %2.9 %
New Orders - Yr/Yr Change8.2 %8.7 %11.5 %
Ex-transportation - M/M-0.1 %0.3 %0.6 %-0.1 % to 1.0 %0.6 %
Ex-transportation - Yr/Yr7.0 %7.5 %8.2 %
Core capital goods - M/M change-0.1 %0.2 %0.5 %0.0 % to 0.7 %-0.3 %
Core capital goods - Yr/Yr8.1 %8.4 %8.4 %

Aircraft and vehicles fed a very strong 2.9 percent jump in December durable goods orders which is nearly double Econoday's high estimate for 1.5 percent. But when excluding transportation equipment, durable orders only hit expectations with a 0.6 percent gain. And when looking at core capital goods orders (nondefense ex-aircraft) a bit of weakness appears with a 0.3 percent dip.

Looking first at strengths, civilian aircraft orders managed to rise 1.5 percent despite an enormously difficult comparison with November's 24.4 percent surge that was tied to Boeing's success at the Dubai Air Show. Vehicle orders extended their positive run with a 0.4 percent gain following 2.0 percent and 1.5 percent increases in the two prior months. Orders for primary metals, fabrications, and also, despite the weakness in capital goods, machinery all show strong gains.

The weakness for capital goods comes from computers, electrical equipment and especially communications equipment which has posted two straight sharp declines, at 3.2 percent and 6.1 percent. But looking at shipments of core capital goods, they were very positive with a 0.6 percent gain in the month which are reflected in the solid showing for nonresidential fixed investment in this morning's fourth-quarter GDP report.

But the dip in core capital goods orders does point to a slow start for first-quarter business investment. Nevertheless this report, which also includes upward revisions to November, points to a factory sector that is being driven by aircraft and vehicles and which is humming along nicely.

Consensus Outlook
Durable goods orders are often bumpy but forecasters, despite a hard comparison with November's jump in aircraft orders, do not see a downswing in December. On the contrary, Econoday's consensus for durable goods orders is a 0.6 percent gain with ex-transportation also seen up a solid 0.6 percent and core capital goods orders seen up 0.5 percent.

Durable goods orders reflect the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods. The first release, the advance, provides an early estimate of durable goods orders. About two weeks later, more complete and revised data are available in the factory orders report. The data for the previous month are usually revised a second time upon the release of the new month's data.

Durable goods orders are available nationally by both industry and market categories. A new order is accompanied by a legally binding agreement to purchase for immediate or future delivery. Advance durable goods orders no longer include data on semiconductors since semiconductor manufacturers stopped releasing this information to the Census Bureau.

The advance durable goods report also contains information on shipments, unfilled orders and inventories. Shipments represent deliveries made, valued at net selling price after discounts and allowances, excluding freight charges and excise taxes. Unfilled orders are those received but not yet delivered.

In 2001, the Census Bureau shifted from the standard industrial classification (SIC) system to the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS). This caused some realignment of major industry classifications. Given the significant revisions incurred, the historical data now begin in 1992.
 Why Investors Care
Monthly fluctuations in durable goods orders are frequent and large and skew the underlying trend in the data. In fact, even the yearly change must be viewed carefully because of the volatility in this series.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/262/273/234/265/256/277/268/249/2710/2511/2112/21
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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