2018 Economic Calendar
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Jobless Claims  
Released On 9/13/2018 8:30:00 AM For wk9/8, 2018
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Claims - Level203 K205 K210 K208 K to 219 K204 K
4-week Moving Average - Level209.50 K210.00 K208.00 K
New Claims - Change-10 K-8 K-1 K

Highlights
A second straight 50-year low is the result for initial jobless claims, coming in at 204,000 in the September 8 week following 205,000 in the prior week. The 4-week average has likewise posted a second straight 50-year low, at 208,000 and 210,000 in the two weeks.

Continuing claims along with this 4-week average are at 46-year lows, down 15,000 overall in lagging data for the September 1 week and down 9,000 to 1.711 million for the 4-week average. The unemployment rate for insured employees is unchanged at only 1.2 percent.

These results offer early indications of another month of strength for the labor market and will raise early expectations for strong growth in September payrolls. There are no special factors in the week following the prior week when state estimates were numerous but had little effect in the subsequent revision.

Consensus Outlook
Initial claims are expected to come in at 210,000 in the September 8 week vs 203,000 in the prior week which along with the 4-week average at 209,500 hit 50-year lows. State estimates were unusually heavy in the prior week which raise the risk of significant revisions.

Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

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