2018 Economic Calendar
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Jobless Claims  
Released On 7/12/2018 8:30:00 AM For wk7/7, 2018
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Claims - Level231 K232 K225 K215 K to 226 K214 K
4-week Moving Average - Level224.50 K224.75 K223.00 K
New Claims - Change3 K4 K-18 K

After edging higher in the prior two weeks, initial jobless claims fell a sizable 18,000 in the July 7 week to a 214,000 level that is just below Econoday's consensus range. The 4-week average is down 1,750 to 223,000 and is right in line with the month-ago comparison.

Continuing claims, which lag by a week, edged 3,000 lower to 1.739 million with this 4-week average up 10,000 to 1.729 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers is unchanged at only 1.2 percent.

These are very healthy results that offer the first hint of strength for the July employment report. Note that all the readings in this report are at or near historic lows and are consistent with strong demand for labor.

Consensus Outlook
Initial claims are expected to come in at 225,000 in the July 7 week vs 231,000 in the prior week. All readings in this report are at or near historic lows and consistent with strong demand for labor.

New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.  Why Investors Care
Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

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