2018 Economic Calendar
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Jobless Claims  
Released On 3/8/2018 8:30:00 AM For wk3/3, 2018
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Claims - Level210 K220 K215 K to 225 K231 K
4-week Moving Average - Level220.50 K222.50 K
New Claims - Change-10 K21 K

Jobless claims popped higher from the prior week's 49-year low, up 21,000 to 231,000 in data for the March 3 week. The 4-week average, up 2,000 to 222,500, is still several thousand below a month ago which is a favorable comparison for tomorrow's employment report. Continuing claims, in lagging data for the February 24 week, fell a sharp 64,000 to 1.870 million with this 4-week average at 1.907 million and 40,000 below the month-ago comparison. The unemployment rate for insured workers remains very low, at only 1.3 percent.

Consensus Outlook
Initial claims are expected to come in at 220,000 in the March 3 week vs 210,000 and a 49-year low in the prior week. Claims have been low and consistent with minimal layoffs and strong demand for labor.

New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.  Why Investors Care
Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

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