2018 Economic Calendar
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FOMC Meeting Announcement  
Released On 6/13/2018 2:00:00 PM
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Federal Funds Rate - Target Level1.50 to 1.75 %1.875 %1.75 % to 2.00 %1.75 to 2.00 %

Highlights
Two rate hikes are in the books in 2018 and there may be, not one, but two more to go before the year is out. Citing a labor market that continues to strengthen and a pick up in household spending, the FOMC is raising its overnight target rate by 25 basis points to an expected range of 1.75 to 2.00 percent. What's not completely expected, is that the FOMC forecasts are penciling in an extra rate hike this year as the median funds forecast is now 2.4 percent vs 2.1 percent in the March forecasts.

In a hawkish note, the statement doesn't say, as it has in the past, that the funds rate will remain low for some time. The strength of the jobs market is especially important here, reflected in the forecasts which now have the unemployment rate ending the year at 3.6 percent, not 3.8 percent as in March.

On prices, though policy makers expect inflation to run near its symmetric target of 2 percent, forecasts for both the PCE and core PCE have been moved higher, up 2 tenths from March for the PCE to 2.1 percent and up 1 tenth for the core to 2.0 percent. The statement makes no mention of trade policy though this issue is certain to come up at the Jerome Powell's press conference which follows shortly. The statement repeats that policy remains accommodative with risks roughly balanced.

Given the strength of recent economic data, it's no surprise that today's results are on the hawkish side in what may not be a plus for the stock market. In a technical move to keep funds on target, the Fed is also raising interest on overnight excess reserves by 20 basis points to 1.95 percent. Vote for today's action was unanimous 8 to 0.

Consensus Outlook
An incremental 25-basis-point rate hike is the unanimous consensus of Econoday's sample for the June FOMC, to a mid-point 1.875 percent within a 1.75 to 2.00 percent range. The strength of employment will likely be cited as the central factor for the rate hike, offsetting still moderate rates of inflation and what may be a no better than modest assessment of consumer spending. Quarterly FOMC forecasts will be updated and Jerome Powell will give his second quarterly press conference.

Definition
The FOMC meeting announcement is a policy statement issued at the conclusion of each meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. It offers updates on economic conditions with special focus on the health of the labor market and the latest on inflation. It also updates the status of the federal funds target which is the FOMC's official policy interest rate. This rate is expressed within a range, such as 1.75 to 2.00 percent. The center of this range is the implied target. The higher this target, the more restrictive monetary policy becomes, the lower this target, the more accommodative policy becomes. Other policy tools are also discussed in the meeting announcement including updates on direct purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. Debate is not offered in the statement, just the consensus view is expressed, though the statement does list the total committee vote and how each member voted.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The Fed closely monitors the core PCE price index to indicate whether or not policy is approximately correct, overly accommodative, or too restrictive. The PCE price index is preferred to the CPI because it is more closely aligned to the cost of living than the CPI [which measures a fixed basket of goods & services.] This chart covers monthly data and the fed funds target rate reflects the monthly average. As such, it will not correspond to the most recent fed funds rate target
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/313/215/26/138/19/2611/812/19
 


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