March 15, 2017
The Fed may be raising rates but their policy still feels dovish, based at least on market reaction to today's FOMC as Treasury rates and the dollar moved lower and the Dow moved higher.
The FOMC did lift their overnight target by 25 basis points to a 0.75 to 1.00 percent range but their forecasts are nearly unchanged, still calling for 2 more hikes during the rest of the year. Yellen, in her quarterly press conference, described economic growth as moderate and downplayed the risks to inflation and also wage inflation, saying core inflation is likely to move only gradually higher before stabilizing at their 2 percent target.
The Dow rose 0.5 percent to 20,950, peaking at 20,977 after the statement. The 2-year Treasury fell a very sharp 10 basis points to 1.30 percent to nearly reverse the month-long rise in this yield. The dollar index fell 1.0 percent to 100.73. The day's economic data include moderate pressure for consumer prices and moderate strength for retail sales.