March 9, 2017
Forecasters, following yesterday's spike in ADP's estimate, are raising their own estimates for tomorrow's employment report. The Econoday consensus for nonfarm payrolls is up 5,000 to 200,000 with the high estimate rising to 240,000. And setting up an important reading for average hourly earnings in tomorrow's report are today's import & export prices which show hints of inflationary pressures.
Short rates continue to inch up reflecting increasing expectations for a rate hike at next week's FOMC meeting. The 2-year Treasury yield, at 1.37 percent, has climbed a sizable 5 basis points following yesterday's ADP report. Stocks marked time Thursday with the Dow posting a fractional gain to 20,858 while oil, which fell sharply yesterday, fell another 50 cents and is just under support at $50.