2017 Economic Calendar
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PPI-FD  
Released On 2/14/2017 8:30:00 AM For Jan, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
PPI-FD - M/M change0.3 %0.2 %0.3 %0.2 % to 0.4 %0.6 %
PPI-FD - Y/Y change1.6 %1.6 %
PPI-FD less food & energy - M/M change0.2 %0.1 %0.2 %0.1 % to 0.2 %0.4 %
PPI-FD less food & energy - Y/Y change1.6 %1.2 %
PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services - M/M change0.1 %0.2 %0.1 % to 0.3 %0.2 %
PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services - Y/Y change1.7 %1.6 %

Highlights
There are indications in the January producer price report that underlying inflation pressures may be building. The headline, at a much higher-than-expected 0.6 percent, is skewed higher by a 4.7 percent monthly surge in energy (gasoline plus 12.9 percent and home heating oil up 14.5 percent), but service readings are also notable, at a moderate plus 0.3 percent overall but at plus 0.9 percent for trade services and plus 1.1 percent for transport services.

Food, unchanged in the month, is one of the few readings not to show much pressure but this follows consecutive gains of 0.5 percent in the two prior months. Goods rose 1.0 percent and, when excluding food and energy, still rose a sizable 0.4 percent. Clothing jumped 4.8 percent in the month reflecting much less discounting than is typical for a January. Other readings include 0.6 percent gains for both government purchases and exports.

This report points to the risk of higher-than-expected readings in tomorrow's consumer price report where only modest gains of 0.3 percent overall and 0.2 percent ex-food and energy are the consensus. Sudden traction for inflation could increase expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes, including one at the March FOMC, and add a new element to policy formation in Washington.

Recent History Of This Indicator
Higher oil prices drove up last week's import price report and are expected to boost headline PPI-FD where the January consensus is 0.3 percent. Less pressure is seen when excluding food & energy with this consensus at 0.2 percent which is also the consensus when excluding food, energy, and also trade services. Most readings in this report have been flat though easy comparisons with last year's lower oil prices are positives for coming reports.

Definition
The Producer Price Index (PPI) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is a family of indexes that measures the average change over time in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller. Effective with the January 2014 PPI data release in February 2014, BLS transitioned from the Stage of Processing (SOP) to the Final Demand-Intermediate Demand (FD-ID) aggregation system. The headline PPI (for Final Demand) measures price changes for goods, services, and construction sold to final demand: personal consumption, capital investment, government purchases, and exports.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
With the redefined and expanded PPI Final Demand series, energy still creates monthly volatility. However, services and construction have softened the headline and core numbers.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
A sluggish economy in 2013 and 2014 slowed inflation at the producer level.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/132/143/144/135/116/137/138/109/1310/1211/1412/12
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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