2017 Economic Calendar
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Chicago Fed National Activity Index  
Released On 11/21/2017 8:30:00 AM For Oct, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Level0.17 0.36 0.20 0.05  to 0.25 0.65 
3 Month Moving Average-0.16 0.01 0.28 

Highlights
The national activity index shot to a far higher-than-expected 0.65 in October with the 3-month average moving from flat to 0.28. The latest level is an expansion high and the 3-month average is near one, both pointing to economic growth that is significantly stronger than average.

But behind the strength are September and October hurricane reversals from August's Texas hit by Harvey. Industrial production fell sharply in August then rebounded in September and then rebounded very strongly in October. The report's three other components are steady with both employment and sales, orders & inventories making slightly smaller contributions and with personal consumption & housing pulling down growth slightly more.

Putting production aside, this report continues to run at a modest pace. But indications from the factory sector have been increasingly promising and do hint at production-driven acceleration for fourth-quarter growth.

Recent History Of This Indicator
The big jump in both industrial production and payroll growth will be key positives for the national activity index where Econoday's consensus is plus 0.20 vs September's 0.17 rise. This index has been soft, underperforming what has been a solid year for economic growth.

Definition
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index that tracks overall economic activity and inflationary pressures. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.  Why Investors Care
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/262/233/204/245/226/267/278/219/2510/2311/2112/21
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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