2017 Economic Calendar
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Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey  
Released On 6/15/2017 8:30:00 AM For Jun, 2017
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
General Business Conditions Index - Level38.8 26.0 18.0  to 35.4 27.6 

Highlights
Unrelenting acceleration is the continuing report from the Philly's Fed manufacturing sample. The general business conditions index did slow from May's outsized 38.8 but not by much, to a still very hot 27.6 in June that beats Econoday's consensus for 26.0.

New orders continue to pour in, at 25.9 vs 25.4 in May, and are increasingly being pushed into backlogs which rose 5 points to 14.0. This is a very strong reading for backlogs that points to the need for employees. And hiring remains very strong, at 16.1 with the workweek also very strong at 20.5.

Delivery times, in confirmation of the extraordinary level of activity for this sample, are at 13.9 for an extremely unusual eighth straight gain. Price pressures for inputs are up, at 20.6, and inventories are being built. The 6-month average, at 31.3, is slowing but not by very much.

This report started its amazing run late last year though its strength has been isolated and has yet to translate to anything near the same level of acceleration for actual factory data out of Washington.

Recent History Of This Indicator
Growth in the factory sector may be modest but growth in the Philadelphia Fed index has been exceptional, at 38.8 in May which next to February's 43.3 is the highest in more than 30 years. New orders are showing similar strength, backlog orders are on the rise, while delivery times, in a sign of tight supply conditions, have slowed in each of the last 7 reports. The Econoday call for June is for slowing but at a still very strong reading of 26.0.

Definition
The general conditions index from this business outlook survey is a diffusion index of manufacturing conditions within the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. This survey, widely followed as an indicator of manufacturing sector trends, is correlated with the ISM manufacturing index and the index of industrial production.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The Philadelphia Fed''s business outlook survey is a good leading indicator for the index of industrial production. It is reported in the third week of the month and thus has a lead time of nearly three weeks.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/192/163/164/205/186/157/208/179/2110/1911/1612/21
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
 


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