2017 Economic Calendar
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Factory Orders  
Released On 3/6/2017 10:00:00 AM For Jan, 2017
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Factory Orders - M/M change1.3 %1.1 %0.9 % to 3.9 %1.2 %

Strength in aircraft orders is masking what is not a favorable factory orders report where the January headline rose a nearly as-expected 1.2 percent. When excluding transportation equipment, orders rose only 0.3 percent. And when looking at core capital goods (nondefense ex-aircraft) the results turn decidedly weak, at a 0.1 percent decline for orders which points to softness ahead for related shipments. And shipments were already in contraction in January, falling 0.4 percent.

There is no revision to December's headline though there is one for unfilled orders which are pushed down another tenth to a very steep minus 0.8 percent. In January, unfilled orders fell 0.4 percent for the 7th decline in 8 months in the worst streak of the economic cycle. This is not a good sign for factory employment.

Turning back to new orders, nondurable goods helped January reflecting gains for petroleum and coal where prices were on the rise during the month. Inventories and shipments held in line during January, both up 0.2 percent and keeping inventories to shipments unchanged at a 1.31 ratio.

Held down by continued weakness in foreign demand, capital goods orders so far are not matching the burst of optimism underway in regional reports. Next data will be factory payrolls in Friday's employment report followed the next week by the manufacturing component of the industrial production, both of which, like factory orders, have been soft.

Consensus Outlook
Factory orders are expected to rise 1.1 percent at the headline level but will be getting an outsized lift from aircraft which posted monthly upswings in the advance durables report. Weakness in core capital goods orders was a major disappointment of the durables report.

Factory orders represent the dollar level of new orders for both durable and nondurable goods. This report gives more complete information than the advance durable goods report which is released one or two weeks earlier in the month.  Why Investors Care
Even though monthly shipment data fluctuate less than new orders, both series show underlying trends more clearly by looking at year-over-year changes. In 2005 for example,new orders rose more rapidly than shipments due to large gains in aircraft orders. Aircraft orders have a long lead to shipment.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/62/33/64/45/46/57/58/39/510/511/312/4
Release For: NovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct

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