2017 Economic Calendar
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ISM Non-Mfg Index  
Released On 3/3/2017 10:00:00 AM For Feb, 2017
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Composite Index - Level56.5 56.5 55.5  to 59.0 57.6 

Highlights
The ISM is picking up strong signals of accelerating activity in the great bulk of the U.S. economy. The non-manufacturing index jumped a very sharp 1.1 points in February to a higher-than-expected 57.6 to signal the strongest rate of monthly growth since October 2015. New orders are over 60 for the second time in 3 months and at 61.2 are at their best rate of growth since August 2015. Backlog orders are also up, 4 points higher to 54.0 for the best reading since, like the headline, October 2015. Business activity (which tracks output) is even better, up 3.3 points to a 63.6 level that was last exceeded in February 2011.

Exports are another standout, up 9 points to 57.0 and offering hope that a big goods deficit in the February trade report (as indicated by Tuesday's advance data) will be offset by an outsized climb in service exports. Cost pressures are tangible but did slow with delivery times steady and inventories rising. A clear signal of strength comes from breadth as 16 of 18 industries reported composite growth in the month.

This report is closely watched and may well strengthen the outlook for February's data from the government. But it has been the government's data that have yet to show the great strength indicated by anecdotal reports like the ISM.

Recent History Of This Indicator
The ISM non-manufacturing index held very consistently in the mid-50s range throughout the last year. Growth in new orders has also held steady, near a very strong 60 level with employment growth, however, lagging in the mid-50s. Strength in this report's employment index would raise expectations for strength in next week's employment report for February.

Definition
The Institute For Supply Management surveys more than 375 firms from numerous sectors across the United States for its non-manufacturing index. This index covers services, construction, mining, agriculture, forestry, and fishing and hunting. The non-manufacturing composite index has four equally weighted components: business activity (closely related to a production index), new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries (also known as vendor performance). The first three components are seasonally adjusted but the supplier deliveries index does not have statistically significant seasonality and is not adjusted. For the composite index, a reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. The supplier deliveries component index requires extra explanation. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. However, slower deliveries are a plus for the economy -- indicating demand is up and vendors are not able to fill orders as quickly.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The ISM non-manufacturing survey does not compile a composite index like its manufacturing cousin. The business activity index, which is actually akin to the production index in the manufacturing survey, is widely followed as the key figure from this survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/52/33/34/55/36/57/68/39/610/411/312/5
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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