2017 Economic Calendar
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Import and Export Prices  
Released On 3/9/2017 8:30:00 AM For Feb, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Import Prices - M/M change0.4 %0.6 %0.2 %0.0 % to 0.3 %0.2 %
Export Prices - M/M change0.1 %0.2 %0.2 %0.0 % to 0.3 %0.3 %
Import Prices - Y/Y change3.7 %4.6 %
Export Prices - Y/Y change2.3 %3.1 %

The 0.2 percent rise for import prices in February looks soft but there are pressures within. Excluding fuels, import prices rose 0.3 percent for the largest increase since July. Industrial supplies outside of petroleum rose 1.4 percent while food products rose 1.0 percent. An important sign of pressure comes from the overall year-on-year rate which is at 4.6 percent for its highest level in 5 years, since February 2012.

Export prices rose 0.3 percent in February to hit Econoday's top estimate. Agricultural products are also a major factor on the export side, rising 1.4 percent in the month. Still wider pressure is apparent, centered in durable goods and including two months of rare price strength for exported capital goods. Year-on-year, total export prices rose 8 tenths from January to 3.1 percent, the highest since December 2011.

Pressure in year-on-year rates reflects easy comparisons against very low energy prices this time last year. Currently, oil prices have been holding steady pointing to continued overall pressure, and building annual rates, in the months ahead. Should average hourly earnings move significantly higher in tomorrow's employment report, talk of an inflationary flashpoint is certain to build.

Consensus Outlook
Import prices have been on the rise as energy prices continue to recovery. Outside of petroleum, however, there has been little pressure. Export prices, getting no lift from agricultural prices, have also been flat. The Econoday consensus calls for a modest 0.2 percent increase for both import and export prices in February.

Import price indexes are compiled for the prices of goods that are bought in the United States but produced abroad and export price indexes are compiled for the prices of goods sold abroad but produced domestically. These prices indicate inflationary trends in internationally traded products.  Why Investors Care
Yearly changes in import and export prices reveal long term price trends for tradable goods, whether inflationary, disinflationary, or deflationary.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

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