2017 Economic Calendar
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Empire State Mfg Survey  
Released On 11/15/2017 8:30:00 AM For Nov, 2017
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
General Business Conditions Index - Level30.2 26.0 20.0  to 29.5 19.4 

Highlights
Welcome slowing is appearing in the New York manufacturing sector where November's Empire State index came in at 19.4, still unusually strong but down from October's 8-year high of 30.2. Shipments are slowing this month, down more than 9 points but still very strong at 18.4. Unfilled orders have moved into contraction at minus 4.6 while delivery times are finally shortening, at minus 2.3 following hurricane-related delays in the two prior months.

But new orders keep rolling in, up 2.7 points to a very strong 20.7 while employment, though down 4.1 points to 11.5, also remains one of the report's hot spots. Input costs remain elevated while selling prices, in a special indication of strength, continue to show traction.

Readings in this report are still unusually strong and hint at the risk of overheating, as do other regional reports which have been overstating actual strength in the sector all year. Yet manufacturing does appear to be building momentum going into year end in what will likely prove a special plus for fourth-quarter GDP. Watch tomorrow for what is expected to be a long awaited rebound in the manufacturing component of the industrial production report.

Recent History Of This Indicator
Readings throughout the Empire State report are near or at expansion highs including the general business conditions index which is expected to come in at 26.0 in November vs October's 30.2. Shipments and employment have been showing steadily increasing strength.

Definition
The New York Fed conducts this monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Participants from across the state represent a variety of industries. On the first of each month, the same pool of roughly 175 manufacturing executives (usually the CEO or the president) is sent a questionnaire to report the change in an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also give their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey has a much shorter history than the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey. The two series tend to move in tandem much of the time, although not each and every month. They are both considered leading indicators for the ISM manufacturing survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/172/153/154/175/156/157/178/159/1510/1611/1512/15
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
 


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