2017 Economic Calendar
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Personal Income and Outlays  
Released On 10/30/2017 8:30:00 AM For Sep, 2017
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Personal Income - M/M change0.2 %0.4 %0.0 % to 0.5 %0.4 %
Consumer Spending - M/M change0.1 %0.9 %0.6 % to 1.1 %1.0 %
PCE Price Index -- M/M change0.2 %0.4 %0.3 % to 0.4 %0.4 %
Core PCE price index - M/M change0.1 %0.1 %0.1 % to 0.3 %0.1 %
PCE Price Index -- Y/Y change1.4 %1.7 %1.6 % to 1.7 %1.6 %
Core PCE price index - Yr/Yr change1.3 %1.3 %1.3 % to 1.5 %1.3 %

Highlights
Core inflation remains lifeless in an unwanted highlight of an otherwise solid income and spending report. Personal income rose 0.4 percent in September and was underpinned by wages & salaries which also rose 0.4 percent. Consumer spending jumped 1.0 percent driven by a 2.1 percent surge in durable goods that was tied to vehicle replacement following Hurricanes Harvey and Irma.

But the rise in income and spending didn't heat up ex-food ex-gas core inflation which posted a marginal 0.1 percent gain. This is the 5th straight 0.1 percent gain for this key reading. The core's year-on-year rate has been stuck at a rock bottom 1.3 percent for the last two months. Total inflation, reflecting a hurricane-related gain for energy prices, rose 0.4 percent with this year-on-year rate rising 2 tenths to 1.6 percent.

But the pressure on energy prices has already faded and unless wage pressures can extend their emerging gains, inflation readings are not going to be climbing in the direction of the Federal Reserve 2 percent goal. Also helping spending in September was a sharp 5 tenths decline in the savings rate to 3.1 percent and a 10-year low in what, however, is likely to be another hurricane effect that will be quickly reversed.

Recent History Of This Indicator
Income and especially spending are expected to show life in September but not the Federal Reserve's core price index which is expected to remain flat. Personal income is seen is rising 0.4 percent in September vs August's 0.2 percent gain while consumer spending, reflecting September's post-hurricane surge in auto sales, is expected to jump 0.9 percent vs August's 0.1 percent rise. The PCE price index is expected to rise 0.4 percent for a year-on-year rate of 1.7 percent but the core rate, which excludes both food and energy, is seen up only 0.1 percent for a year-on-year rate stuck at 1.3 percent.

Definition
Personal income represents the income that households receive from all sources including wages and salaries, fringe benefits such as employer contributions to private pension plans, proprietors' income, income from rent, dividends and interest and transfer payments such as Social Security and unemployment compensation. Personal contributions for social insurance are subtracted from personal income.

Personal consumption expenditures are the major portion of personal outlays, which also include personal interest payments and transfer payments. Personal consumption expenditures are divided into durable goods, nondurable goods and services. These figures are the monthly analogues to the quarterly consumption expenditures in the GDP report, available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars. Economic performance is more appropriately measured after the effects of inflation are removed.

Each month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis also compiles the personal consumption expenditure price index, also known as the PCE price index. This inflation index measures a basket of goods and services that is updated annually in contrast to the CPI, which measures a fixed basket.

 Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Changes in taxes or social security cost of living adjustments can cause some sharp variations in monthly disposable income growth. However, on the whole, monthly changes in disposable income fluctuate less than monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
Monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures are usually skewed by large changes in spending on durable goods. Spending on nondurable goods and services tend to be less volatile from one month to the next.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/303/13/315/15/306/308/18/319/2910/3011/3012/22
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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