2017 Economic Calendar
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Personal Income and Outlays  
Released On 3/31/2017 8:30:00 AM For Feb, 2017
PriorConsensusConsensus Range
Personal Income - M/M change0.4 %0.4 %0.3 % to 0.5 %
Consumer Spending - M/M change0.2 %0.2 %0.1 % to 0.3 %
PCE Price Index -- M/M change0.4 %0.1 %0.1 % to 0.1 %
Core PCE price index - M/M change0.3 %0.2 %0.1 % to 0.3 %
PCE Price Index -- Y/Y change1.9 %2.1 %2.1 % to 2.1 %
Core PCE price index - Yr/Yr change1.7 %1.7 %1.7 % to 1.8 %

Recent History Of This Indicator
On a nominal basis, personal income has been growing in the modest 3 to 3-1/2 percent range the past year though wages & salaries have been in the 4 percent range. Consumer spending has been on a moderate rise to the 4 percent range, again before inflation. For January, forecasters see income rising a monthly 0.4 percent with spending up only 0.2 percent in what points to softness for first-quarter GDP. Key in this report will be the PCE price index which has been on the rise and is expected to post a monthly gain of 0.1 percent to keep the year-on-year rate at 2.1 percent. The core PCE (less food & energy) is expected to rise 0.2 percent with this yearly rate holding at 1.7 percent and safely below the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target.

Definition
Personal income represents the income that households receive from all sources including wages and salaries, fringe benefits such as employer contributions to private pension plans, proprietors' income, income from rent, dividends and interest and transfer payments such as Social Security and unemployment compensation. Personal contributions for social insurance are subtracted from personal income.

Personal consumption expenditures are the major portion of personal outlays, which also include personal interest payments and transfer payments. Personal consumption expenditures are divided into durable goods, nondurable goods and services. These figures are the monthly analogues to the quarterly consumption expenditures in the GDP report, available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars. Economic performance is more appropriately measured after the effects of inflation are removed.

Each month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis also compiles the personal consumption expenditure price index, also known as the PCE price index. This inflation index measures a basket of goods and services that is updated annually in contrast to the CPI, which measures a fixed basket.

 Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Changes in taxes or social security cost of living adjustments can cause some sharp variations in monthly disposable income growth. However, on the whole, monthly changes in disposable income fluctuate less than monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
Monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures are usually skewed by large changes in spending on durable goods. Spending on nondurable goods and services tend to be less volatile from one month to the next.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/303/13/315/15/306/308/18/319/2910/3011/3012/22
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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