2017 Economic Calendar
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Jobless Claims  
Released On 11/2/2017 8:30:00 AM For wk10/28, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Claims - Level233 K234 K235 K235 K to 240 K229 K
4-week Moving Average - Level239.50 K239.75 K232.50 K
New Claims - Change10 K11 K-5 K

Highlights
Claims in Puerto Rico are rising but are offset by overall improvement as initial claims fell 5,000 in the October 28 week to a lower-than-expected 229,000. The 4-week average is down for the 5th week in a row, 7,250 lower to a 232,500 level that is 35,000 below a month ago in a comparison that points to strength for tomorrow's October employment report.

The 4-week average also marks a 44-year low as do continuing claims which, in lagging data for the October 21 week, fell 15,000 to 1.884 million. And in a reading that underscores just how strong demand for labor is, the unemployment rate for insured workers is a very low 1.3 percent.

Puerto Rico reported 6,129 initial claims in the October 28 week, up from a revised 3,447 in the prior week and roughly triple what it usually reports. Rising claims from the territory, as it continues to recover from Hurricane Maria in September, are a risk for future reports.

Recent History Of This Indicator
Puerto Rico is appearing as a factor yet hurricane effects have otherwise eased. Initial claims are expected to rise slightly in the October 28 week to a consensus 235,000. Claims in the prior week totaled 233,000 with Puerto Rico rising sharply to more than 3,000.

Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

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