2017 Economic Calendar
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Employment Situation  
Released On 3/10/2017 8:30:00 AM For Feb, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change227,000 238,000 200,000 162,000  to 240,000 235,000 
Unemployment Rate - Level4.8 %4.7 %4.6 % to 4.8 %4.7 %
Private Payrolls - M/M change237,000 221,000 200,000 168,000  to 240,000 227,000 
Participation Rate - level62.9 %63.0 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change0.1 %0.2 %0.3 %0.1 % to 0.4 %0.2 %
Av Workweek - All Employees34.4 hrs34.4 hrs34.4 hrs to 34.5 hrs34.4 hrs

Highlights
A rate hike at next week's FOMC is a lock based on the February employment report where strength came in at the very outside of expectations. Nonfarm payrolls rose 235,000 vs Econoday expectations for 200,000 which, after Wednesday's ADP report, were rising going into today's results. There is also an upward revision to January which now stands at 238,000 for an 11,000 gain.

The unemployment rate slipped 1 tenth to 4.7 percent despite a 1 tenth and welcome uptick in the participation rate to 63.0 percent. Average hourly earnings are not part of the report's strength, at least not the monthly rate which rose only 0.2 percent. The year-on-year rate, however, did move higher and is back approaching 3 percent at 2.8 percent. Weekly hours held unchanged at 34.4.

Looking at sectors, retail trade held down gains with a 26,000 decline. But construction was very strong at plus 58,000 with manufacturing showing rare strength with a 28,000 gain. Government added 8,000 while professional & business services added a very strong 37,000 in a gain that suggests employers are having trouble ramping up their staffs quickly enough.

The burst of optimism that followed the election may be manifesting itself in rising employment, at least that's a safe bet given the outstanding strength of both the February and January job reports.

Consensus Outlook
The Econoday consensus for February nonfarm payrolls is a solid 200,000 in what would mark only limited give back from January's surprisingly strong 227,000 gain. In further strength, forecasters see a 1 tenth dip in February's unemployment rate to 4.7 percent and a sizable 0.3 percent increase in average hourly earnings that could raise talk of wage inflation. The average workweek is expected to hold steady at 34.4 hours. If the report meets consensus, chances for a rate hike at the mid-month FOMC would increase further.

Definition
The most closely watched of all economic indicators, the employment situation is a set of monthly labor market indicators based on two separate reports: the establishment survey which tracks 650,000 worksites and offers the nonfarm payroll and average hourly earnings headlines and the household survey which interviews 60,000 households and generates the unemployment rate.

Nonfarm payrolls track the number of part-time and full-time employees in both business and government. Average hourly earnings track employee pay while the average workweek, also part of the establishment survey, tracks the number of hours worked. The report's private payroll measure excludes government workers.

The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. In order to be counted as unemployed, one must be actively looking for work. Other commonly known data from the household survey include the labor supply and discouraged workers.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
During the mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payrolls gains of 150,000 or so are considered relatively healthy. In the early stages of recovery though, gains are expected to surpass 250,000 per month.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
The civilian unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic activity. During a recession, many people leave the labor force entirely, so the jobless rate may not increase as much as expected. This means that the jobless rate may continue to increase in the early stages of recovery because more people are returning to the labor force as they believe they will be able to find work. The civilian unemployment rate t
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/62/33/104/75/56/27/78/49/110/611/312/8
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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