Highlights
Boosted by swelling money supply related to government stimulus, the Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators showed its first gain since June, up 0.3 percent in December. But without money supply, indications are in fact very negative with the report warning that the results point to "intense recession" through the spring. Factors pointing to economic decline include falling building permits, a falling factory workweek, faster vendor deliveries and rising unemployment claims. The report's coincident indicator is showing the degree of current trouble, with a 0.5 percent decline following a 0.3 percent decline in November.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The Conference Board's index of leading indicators fell 0.4 percent in November, following a 0.9 percent drop the month before. The latest decrease was led by declines in building permits, stock prices, and a rise in unemployment claims. The index of coincident indicators, resumed its downward trend with a 0.3 percent decline after a 0.3 percent technical rebound in October. Industrial production had boosted this index in October on a rebound in activity in areas hit by hurricanes. But overall, the report pointed to a deeper recession with no sign of recovery yet in sight.

Leading indicators Consensus Forecast for December 08: -0.3 percent
Range: -0.7 to +0.6 percent

2009 Release Schedule

Released On: 1/26 2/19 3/19 4/20 5/21 6/18 7/20 8/20 9/21 10/22 11/19 12/17 Released For: Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov