Highlights
Outlays are up 41 percent while receipts are down 14 percent, the central results of the Treasury's December budget statement that shows an $83.6 billion deficit in the month and a massive deficit of $485 billion just three months into the Treasury's fiscal year. Much of the jump in outlays is tied to the TARP bailout which totaled $55 billion in December vs. $76.5 billion in November. But the Treasury is also buying agency debt, outlays that totaled a separate $21.8 billion vs. November's $23.2 billion. Damage to the budget is the new reality as the government, in an extraordinary effort, seeks to stimulate the economy through deficit spending.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The U.S. Treasury monthly budget report showed that the deficit in November, inflated by TARP payments, totaled $164.4 billion. Now two months into the fiscal year, the year-to-date deficit is a whopping $401.6 billion. The Treasury's budget is a mess, offering a clear illustration of the great troubles facing the economy. The past offers little guidance for the near term future other than showing the depth of current problems. The month of December typically shows a moderate surplus for the month. Over the past 10 years, the average surplus for the month of December has been $13.8 billion and $7.5 billion over the past 5 years. However, TARP and other issues are likely to turn December 2008 into a sharp deficit.

Treasury Statement Consensus Forecast for December 08: -$83.0 billion
Range: -$150.0 billion to -$26.0 billion.

2009 Release Schedule

Released On: 1/13 2/11 3/11 4/10 5/12 6/10 7/13 8/12 9/11 10/16 11/12 12/10 Released For: Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov