Highlights
Pessimism may be easing as consumer confidence posted its biggest one-month jump in four years, to 39.2 in April from 26.9 in March (revised higher from 26.0). Expectations really improved, up nearly 20 points to 49.5 suggesting that consumers see recovery ahead. In an important plus on the psychology front, consumers see stable conditions ahead for prices. On the negative side, the current assessment of the jobs market shows no improvement with 47.9 percent saying jobs are hard to get, a reading that points to no let up in monthly payroll contraction.

Confidence doesn't always relate one-to-one with spending but these results will raise talk that the worst may be over for the retail sector and in turn for the whole economy. Stocks bounced higher in immediate reaction to the report while Treasuries bounced lower.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index in March edged slightly higher but remained deeply depressed at a reading of 26.0. Pessimism on the current assessment of the jobs market was still very deep with only 4.6 percent saying jobs are plentiful versus 48.7 percent who say they are hard to get. The bad news in the report was that buying plans eroded further. Only 3.9 percent of the sample planned to buy a car in the next six months, down 8 tenths in the month. Those planning to buy a house fell to 2.0 percent from 2.3 percent while those planning to buy a major appliance fell 1 percentage point to 24.0 percent.

2009 Release Schedule

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