Highlights
Consumer spirits continue to sink to new depths, reflecting employment contraction and pointing to continued contraction in retail sales. The Conference Board's readings are all at record lows or near record lows, at an index of 37.7 in January vs. 38.6 in December (38.0 first reported). The January index is a record low in more than 40 years of data. Weakness is centered in the present situation where the component edged further lower to 29.9. But expectations, at 43.0 for a 1.2 point decline, are also weak and show no sign that consumers think the worst is over.

If there is a positive in the report it's that the current assessment of the jobs market isn't deteriorating, suggesting that monthly contraction in payrolls, however severe, may have at least steadied. Those saying that jobs are currently hard to get slipped slightly to 41.1 percent while those saying jobs are plentiful rose slightly to 7.2 percent. But whatever improvement there is in these readings is more than offset by greater deterioration in the assessment of current business conditions where nearly half are now pessimists.

Buying plans were mixed showing improvement in autos but declines in homes and appliances. One-year inflation expectations remain high but are improving, at 5.6 percent. Markets showed little initial reaction to the results.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index in December hit a new low for the recession, dropping nearly 7 points 38.0. The present situation component, at 29.4, fell more than 10 points and was at its lowest level since the early 1990s. The expectations index - which typically turns up or down sooner than the present situation index - gave no sign of encouragement, sinking about 2 points. More recent and negative numbers for building permits and the stock market indicate another down month for the leading index in December.

Consumer confidence Consensus Forecast for December 08: 39.0
Range: 35.0 to 45.0

2009 Release Schedule

Released On: 1/27 2/24 3/31 4/28 5/26 6/30 7/28 8/25 9/29 10/27 11/24 12/29 Released For: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec