2009 Economic Calendar
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Factory Orders  
Released On 11/3/2009 10:00:00 AM For Sep, 2009
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Factory Orders - M/M change-0.8 %1.0 %-0.8 % to 1.4 %0.9 %

Factory orders rebounded strongly in September though the outlook for October, based on yesterday's ISM report, is less upbeat. Factory orders rose 0.9 percent vs. a 0.8 percent decline in August. September's gain was led by durable goods orders which rose 1.4 percent, data revised 4 tenths higher from the advance durable goods report issued last week. The non-durable goods component, boosted by chemical prices, rose 0.6 percent. Given October's gains in energy prices, the non-durables component is likely to show another gain in next month's issue of this report. But the slowing in the ISM's new orders index in yesterday's manufacturing report points to a smaller gain for October's durable goods component.

Other readings include a rebound in nondefense capital goods orders though the outlook for further increases is uncertain given weak indications on business investment. Total inventories fell 1.0 percent but this reading may begin to turn given indications in the ISM report that manufacturers are beginning to phase out of the destocking cycle. Shipments rose 0.8 percent and will follow the lead of orders data in future months. Unfilled orders dipped 0.4 percent but are likely to begin firming given the turn underway in new orders. Though the turn is underway, early indications for the recovery of the manufacturing sector are moderate not robust.

Consensus Outlook
Factory orders in August fell 0.8 percent, following a 1.4 percent rise in July. August's data were pulled lower by durable goods. New orders for nondurables were up, reflecting higher prices for oil & coal. Looking ahead, the advance report on durables orders suggests a rebound in overall factory orders. Durable goods orders in rebounded 1.0 percent in September, after a 2.6 percent drop in August and a 4.8 percent surge in July. Also, higher oil prices will likely boost the nondurables component of factory orders in September.

Factory orders represent the dollar level of new orders for both durable and nondurable goods. This report gives more complete information than the advance durable goods report which is released one or two weeks earlier in the month.  Why Investors Care
Even though monthly shipment data fluctuate less than new orders, both series show underlying trends more clearly by looking at year-over-year changes. In 2005 for example,new orders rose more rapidly than shipments due to large gains in aircraft orders. Aircraft orders have a long lead to shipment.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2009 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/62/53/54/25/16/37/28/59/210/211/312/4
Release For: NovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct

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