2009 Economic Calendar
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Factory Orders  
Released On 9/2/2009 10:00:00 AM For Jul, 2009
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Factory Orders - M/M change0.4 %2.3 %1.2 % to 4.5 %1.3 %

Highlights
Factory orders rose 1.3 percent in July, the biggest increase since June last year and extending a run of solid gains including a 0.9 percent rise in June (plus 0.4 percent first reported). Durable goods orders, boosted by an aircraft-related burst of 18.5 percent in transportation goods, jumped 5.1 percent for the biggest gain in two years (plus 4.9 percent first reported). Motor vehicle orders fell 1.3 percent with this component likely to reverse given empty dealer lots following the big cash-for-clunkers stimulus promotion. Nondurable goods orders fell 1.9 percent, the largest drop this year and reflecting declines in petroleum and coal products, declines that hit despite relatively stable June-to-July oil prices. Excluding durable and non-durable transportation goods, orders fell 0.7 percent.

Factories continued to burn through inventories, down 0.7 percent in the month. Shipments were unchanged but included a second month of solid gains for capital goods. Shipments of nondurable consumer goods fell 3.0 percent reflecting declines in fuel, beverage & tobacco, and food products. Unfilled orders were unchanged.

The factory sector has already bottomed and is beginning to recover, an assessment underscored by yesterday's ISM manufacturing report. But manufacturers are not restocking their warehouses yet and are not rehiring yet, lagging factors that will hopefully kick in soon to give the total economy a badly needed boost.

Consensus Outlook
Factory orders in June rose 0.4 percent, following a revised 1.1 percent gain in May. However, much of the increase was price related. The June gain came from a 2.7 percent jump in nondurables while durables fell 2.2 percent (later revised to down 1.3 percent). The nondurables increase included a surge in petroleum & coal products. About half of this spike was price-related. More recently, the advance durables report for July suggests a healthy gain in overall factory orders for the month. Durables orders surged 4.9 percent in July on a spike in aircraft orders and auto orders.

Definition
Factory orders represent the dollar level of new orders for both durable and nondurable goods. This report gives more complete information than the advance durable goods report which is released one or two weeks earlier in the month.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Even though monthly shipment data fluctuate less than new orders, both series show underlying trends more clearly by looking at year-over-year changes. In 2005 for example,new orders rose more rapidly than shipments due to large gains in aircraft orders. Aircraft orders have a long lead to shipment.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2009 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/62/53/54/25/16/37/28/59/210/211/312/4
Release For: NovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct
 


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